032
FXUS65 KPIH 180900
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
300 AM MDT Sat May 18 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday night.
It will be a dry and sunny day throughout southeast Idaho today.
It will again become breezy this afternoon in the Snake River
Plain with the strongest winds expected in the Arco desert and
will see some locations reaching near 30 mph sustained but think
the overwhelming majority of locations will remain just below
advisory level. High temperatures today will be near or slightly
above normal with upper 60s to lower 70s in lower elevations and
upper 50s to lower 60s in the mountains. The next upper level trof
and associated surface cold front will move through eastern Idaho
on Sunday with much colder temperatures and windier conditions
once again. High temperatures will drop significantly from
Saturday with mountains highs in the 40s and 50s and valleys in
the upper 50s to lower 60s. There will be a slight chance of
showers and isolated thunderstorms with the front in the eastern
mountains and a very low chance in the central mountains. May be
near wind advisory levels in the Snake River Plain with sustained
wind speeds near 30 mph and some gusts in the 40s during the day.
Sunday night will be cold with lows in the 20s mountains and 30s
valleys.
GK

.LONG TERM...Monday through next Saturday.
Unsettled and seasonably cool weather is expected for next week
associated with a several H5 troughs working out of WRN Canada and
the PacNW into SE Idaho. The EPS and GEFS models remain in good
agreement through next weekend outlining at least three separate
troughs moving through our region which even with deterministic
solutions varying on the depth and placement, will support the trend
for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms most days. At
this time, the overall QPF/rainfall amounts look to remain light
with locally higher totals dependent on convection but favoring for
the most part the CNTRL Mountains and ERN/SRN Highlands. While winds
will remain light Monday and Tuesday, those look to increase for
Wednesday and Thursday associated with 30-40 kt 700 mb winds
shifting overhead.

This active pattern will favor zonal/NW flow aloft which will in
turn keep temperatures below normal for this time of year with highs
in the 50s/60s and lows in the 30s/40s. We may also see the
potential for FROST ADVISORIES through the long term period at
times, especially Sunday night and Thursday night. MacKay

&&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday.
Predominant VFR and dry conditions will continue through the weekend
under mostly clear skies Saturday with increasing clouds Saturday
night into Sunday. Winds will increase diurnally each day to around
10-20 kts on Saturday and 15-25 kts on Sunday with gusts to 25-40
kts. MacKay

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A flood warning continues for the Portneuf river in
Pocatello.  A flood advisory continues along the Portneuf river at
Topaz. Water levels are slowly receding for the Portneuf river due
to the snowpack diminishing. Water levels for other rivers,
including the Big Wood, Big Lost, Henrys Fork, Teton, and Snake, are
continuing to slowly climb due to snowmelt, but all rivers look
to remain below action stage with current forecasts.
Wyatt

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$