465
FXUS65 KPSR 212154
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
254 PM MST Tue May 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will be near normal through the weekend before warming
back above normal by the beginning of next week. Typical afternoon
and early evening springtime breeziness will continue into the
weekend, with the highest wind speeds expected on Friday. Dry
conditions will persist into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Broad upper level troughing will remain in place over Western CONUS
through the weekend, which will keep our temperatures near normal
leading to widespread Minor HeatRisk. Typical afternoon and early
evening breeziness can also be expected with gusts around 15-25 mph.
A couple dry embedded shortwave troughs will also move through the
region with the last shortwave trough moving through on Friday and
Saturday. This trough will dig far enough south into our area to
cool temperatures off to slightly below normal and increase our
afternoon and early evening wind speeds. The highest wind speeds are
expected on Friday with gusts of 25-40 mph. Slightly lower wind
gusts are expected on Saturday, but gusts of 25-35 mph are still
possible. These elevated winds on Friday and Saturday could lead to
some elevated, to locally critical, fire danger. After the trough
exits on Saturday, global ensemble models are in good agreement that
heights aloft will start to rise as a high amplitude trough starts
to build in over the region. H5 heights are expected to climb into
the 585-590dm range by early next week. This will allow for
temperature to rise back above normal, with portions of the lower
deserts getting back into triple digits as early as Monday. The
ridge will continue to build over the region into the middle of next
week where we could potentially see the hottest temperatures of the
year so far. Dry conditions will continue into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1735Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period with
fairly light winds generally following diurnal tendencies. Expect
southwest winds to establish by the afternoon with occasional
gusts into the mid teens through early evening. Expect a shift to
easterly winds this evening. Clear skies will prevail through the
period.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours under clear
skies. At KIPL winds continue to favor the west northwest with an
extended period of light wind speeds (aob 6 kt sustained)
increasing later this evening to aob 10 kt sustained. Expect light
and variable conditions tomorrow morning. Light and variable
winds are forecast at KBLH through the afternoon before settling
out of the southwest during the evening becoming light and
variable again tomorrow morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions, near normal temperatures, and typical afternoon and
early evening breeziness will continue through the week. MinRH
levels will be in the single digits with some slight improvement
into the 10-20% range by the end of the week. Overnight recovery
will be poor to fair and in the 20-40% range. Afternoon and early
evening wind gusts will be in the 15-25 mph range through
Thursday. Friday will have even high wind gusts up into the 25-35
mph range with isolated gusts up around 40 mph. These higher wind
gusts will cause some elevated, to locally critical, fire danger.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Berislavich
AVIATION...95
FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich/Benedict