757
FXUS65 KPUB 011006
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
406 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms are possible (40-60% chance) yet
  again for our plains today, with main risks being hail up to
  1.5 inches, winds gusting over 60 mph, and lightning.

- Hot and dry weather develops Sunday and continues into the
  middle of next week.

- Slow upturn in thunderstorms chances and slightly cooler
  conditions then possible by week`s end.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 346 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Currently..

Rain and storms have pushed east into Kansas, leaving mostly clear
skies and light winds across the area. Temperatures are in the mid
50s across the plains, with 40s over our mountain valleys. Dewpoints
are in mid to upper 40s for most plains locations, with some low 50s
coming in across our far eastern plains.

Today and Tonight..

Today looks to be the last of a string of days in which we saw
chances for severe thunderstorms across our plains. Temperatures
look to be around 6 to 8 degrees warmer than yesterday for most
locations, and we are once again outlooked the SPC for a slight risk
across the majority of our plains for this afternoon. The main risks
with storms on our plains today will be large hail up to 1.5 inches,
damaging winds gusting over 60 mph, and cloud to ground lightning.
Dewpoints are higher on our eastern plains than they were at this
time yesterday, but we are still seeing lots of model disagreement
about the amount of moisture we could have available by the time
storms get going this afternoon. With drier solutions, storms
initiate later and further east. Models that are moister tend to
develop storms over and near the terrain by around 2 to 3pm this
afternoon, especially over the Pikes Peak region and the southern
mountains, with chances for those storms to become severe sooner as
they push east into more favorable environments. Most solutions have
at least 2000-2400 J/Kg of CAPE across our eastern plains later this
afternoon and into this evening, but the main disagreement lies in
how far west models are bringing that instability. The HRRR and
other drier solutions keep those higher amounts out near the Kansas
border, where the NamNest drags it almost all the way back to the I-
25 corridor. Dry models also show higher DCAPE values, which would
lead to more of a wind threat with storms today if realized. 0 to 6
km bulk shear is just as high as yesterday as well, with +40kt
looking possible across multiple model solutions. 0 to 3 km SRM
Helicity is much lower than yesterday, though there is an
interesting bullseye of 150+ values over our far northeastern plains
after 00Z this evening. If there is any sort of linear structure
left to convection on the plains at that time, with helicity values
that high we could possibly see some non-supercell tornadoes in that
area. Storms look to move out of the forecast area with more haste
tonight than what we`ve seen off and on throughout this week. Most
model solutions suggest that our eastern plains should be clearing
out by around 9pm or so at the latest.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 346 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Broad upper trough moves through the Rockies on Sunday, turning
low and mid level winds across Colorado more swly as a result.
Flow will bring in drier/hotter air into the region, with
somewhat diffuse dryline shifting eastward toward the KS border
Sunday afternoon. Convection Sunday should be limited to mainly
some high based virga over the higher terrain and I-25 corridor,
with perhaps a brief/weak tsra over the far southeastern plains
late afternoon/early evening, as dryline is still near the CO/KS
border at 00z. Max temps will climb into the 80s/90s at many
locations, and it will likely end up being the hottest day so
far this year over most of the area.

Upper jet then lifts north of Colorado early next week, as short
wave energy races eastward along the Canadian border. Pattern
should lead to a continuation of warm and generally dry
conditions Mon-Wed, and any intrusions of low level moisture on
the plains will be shallow and brief. Upper ridge then builds
over the wrn U.S. after Wed, and while models still differ on
ridge position, main message of most solutions appears to be a
slow increase in nwly upper flow across CO, allowing cooler/more
moist air mass to gradually spread westward across the plains
by the end of the week. Thunderstorm chances will thus return to
the forecast as early as Thu, though more widespread activity
may await deeper moisture`s arrival on Friday into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 346 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

KCOS and KPUB..VFR conditions are expected through the majority of
the TAF period. Chances for showers and storms in the vicinity of
KCOS will be highest from 21Z until 01Z, and from 22Z until 00Z at
KPUB. MVFR ceilings and visibilities, along with lightning and gusty
winds will be possible with any storms that move over or near either
station today.

KALS...VFR conditions are expected for KALS for the next 24 hours.
Westerly winds are expected through the forecast period, with gusts
to 22kt during peak heating today. Some showers and weak
thunderstorms will be possible along the terrain surrounding the
station, though chances of any storms moving within the vicinity are
low at this time.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...EHR