790
FXUS65 KPUB 012102
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
302 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms to linger across the eastern
  plains this evening until around 9 PM.

- Warmer and drier weather conditions remain on tap into the
  middle of work week with a slow increase in precipitation
  chances into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 301 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Currently...Broad upper trough was gradually moving across the
western US. Isolated convection has fired over the Pikes Peak region
as well as the Raton Mesa this afternoon, producing radar-indicated
hail up to around 3/4 inch in diameter as well as occasional
lightning. Temps have warmed into the 70s for the high valleys, and
mid 70s to mid 80s across the plains. Convection is slowly drifting
to the east, and moving into more moisture rich air.

Tonight...All roads point to a somewhat busy evening, with 0-6KM
bulk shear at 40-45 kts and CAPE at 1500-2500 j/kg for much of the
plains. SPC has kept much of the plains in a Slight box for severe
weather, and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for much of
the eastern plains until 9 PM tonight. Now, having said that, hi-res
models do indicate that the back edge of the moisture quickly pushes
east late this afternoon into the evening, and western portions of
the watch such as Crowley, Otero and Las Animas counties will likely
be dropped early. Main threats will be wind gusts around 60 mph,
large hail up to 2 inches in diameter, periods of moderate to heavy
rain and frequent cloud to ground lightning. Clearing skies are then
anticipated overnight. Overnight lows will cool into the upper 30s
to mid 40s for the high valleys, and 50s across the plains.

Tomorrow...Upper trough moves into the Great Basin and Four Corners
regions, and increasing w-sw flow aloft will mean a very hot and
increasingly dry day for the forecast area on Sunday. Though SPC has
the far eastern plains within a Marginal box for severe weather,
currently it looks like convection will be isolated at best across
the Palmer Divide and near the eastern border. High temps will climb
into the upper 70s to lower 80s for the high valleys, and mid 80s to
mid 90s for the plains. Moore

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 301 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Modest west to northwest flow aloft across the region Sunday night
moderates into the middle of next week, as upper level ridging
continues to build over the Central Rockies. This allow for warmer
and drier conditions to prevail across south central and southeast
Colorado. Highs through mid week look to warm to above seasonal levels
in the mid 80s to upper 90s across the plains, with temps mainly in
60s and 70s across higher terrain. Overnight lows also look to be
at or above seasonal levels, leading to some increased flows in area
streams, with enhanced melting of the high mountain snowpack.

By Thursday, an omega block pattern looks to set up across the region,
with passing waves across the Central Conus and southerly flow in place
across the Dessert Southwest will lead to slowly increasing moisture
and slowly increasing chances of daily showers and thunderstorms area
wide, as temperatures remain at to above seasonal levels.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1135 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

VFR conditions anticipated across much of the forecast area
today over the next 24 hrs, including the three main TAF sites
of KCOS, KPUB and KALS. Abundant llvl moisture across the
eastern plains is expected to spark strong to severe
thunderstorm activity once again this afternoon after 20z and
lasting through 05z near the eastern border.

KCOS and KPUB: VCSH and VCTS mentioned between 20z and 04z.

KALS: Increasing W-SW winds with gusts to around 22 kt between
20z and 03z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE