365
FXUS65 KPUB 312052
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
252 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms possible across the southeast Plains
  tonight and again on Saturday.

- Hot and essentially dry conditions on tap through much of the
  extended forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 223 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicates
increasing westerly flow aloft across the Rockies, as a minor short
wave translates through the stronger westerly flow across the
Northern Tier. Regional radars indicating isolated showers and
storms across spreading across the higher terrain, with a stronger
storm developing across the southern Sangre`s attm. Surface analysis
still indicates an old convective boundary just north of the Palmer
Dvd, with SPC meso analysis indicating ML Cape of 500-1000 J/jg
across southeast Colorado attm, however, there remains some cin in
place as well.

For the rest of tonight...latest cams indicating two main areas of
storm development with convergence along the Palmer Dvd and Raton
Mesa. Storms across the Palmer look to move southeast across eastern
El Paso county into the the southeast plains while storms across the
Raton Mesa drift northeast across eastern Las Animas and southern
Pueblo counties into the southeast Plains. Storms moving east will
encounter increasing shear and could become severe, producing hail
up to 1.5 inches in diameter and strong and damaging outflow winds,
along with locally heavy rainfall, with possible merging cells
across the far southeast plains through the late evening. Convective
outflows could send moisture back towards the front range through
the overnight hours, with some patchy stratus possible across the
plains early Saturday morning.

For Saturday...moderate westerly flow prevails across the Rockies
as the next embedded wave translates across the Intermountain West.
With low level moisture in place and warmer temperatures, should see
another round of strong to severe storms, producing large hail and
damaging winds across southeast Colorado Saturday afternoon. The
latest SPC Day 2 Outlook continues to indicate slight risk across
most of southeast Colorado, with a hatched hail area (possible 2+
inch hail) east of the I-25 Corridor. Further west, isolated high
based -shra/-trsa remains possible. Highs tomorrow look to slightly
warmer than today, in the upper 70s to upper 80s across the plains,
and mainly in the 60s and 70s across the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 223 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024

Saturday night...Strong to severe thunderstorms expected to linger
across the far eastern plains through around 03z, and model guidance
continues showing around 2500-3000 j/kg CAPE and 0-6km shear of 45-
55 kts. After around 9 PM pockets of instability persist for the
eastern plains until perhaps 3 AM, with mild overnight temps in the
upper 30s to upper 40s for the high valleys, and 50s across the
plains.

Sunday and Monday...Dry and much warmer west to southwest flow aloft
settles in across the region as a broad upper trough moves across
the western US. A quick-moving shortwave crossing MT on Monday will
mean an increase in westerly flow for CO that will keep temps
elevated. Other than some isolated convection over the plains, it
will be basically dry with high temps both days climbing into the
80s for the high valleys, and mid 80s to mid 90s for the plains.
Critical fire weather conditions start to redevelop across portions
of the area due to the increasing heat and dropping humidity levels,
and will need to be further monitored.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Ridge of high pressure builds into the Desert
SW through midweek, maintaining hot and dry conditions but allowing
winds to decrease a bit. There will still be an isolated shot for
some convection each afternoon and evening for the higher terrain,
but for the most part plan on dry conditions to persist. High temps
will again warm to around 80F for the high valleys both days, and
into the mid 80s to mid 90s for the plains.

Thursday...Long-range models are indicating a low pressure center
moving onshore across the CA Baja on Thu, while some llvl moisture
starts to sneak back up into southern CO. Plenty of time for this
solution to evolve, but the extended procedure is indicating a few
degrees of cooling across the plains along with a more widespread
shot for isolated to low-end scattered precipitation. Moore

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1122 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024

Mainly VFR conditions expected at COS and PUB over the
next 24 hours, with expected storms developing over
the higher terrain this afternoon and pushing east
across the I-25 Corridor into the far southeast Plains
through the evening. Storms across the I-25 Corridor
could become strong, with potential for hail and gusty
outflow winds, with storms strengthening as the continue
to push east into a more unstable environment across the
southeast plains. Currently will keep VCTS in tafs at both
COS and PUB into the early evening, with decreasing clouds
and generally light diurnal winds into the over night hours.
More storm development is expected Saturday afternoon.

VFR conditions expected at ALS over the next 24 hours.
Can`t rule out a high based shower or storm passing
near the terminal this afternoon, with gusty winds
the main threat. Clearing skies through the evening
with mainly light diurnal wind regimes expected
through the period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MW