107
FXUS65 KPUB 251147
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
547 AM MDT Sat May 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry, quite warm, and windy today. Critical fire weather conditions
  expected over parts of the southern mountains.

- Some shower and thunderstorm activity is possible this afternoon/
  evening over portions of the higher terrain.

- Critical fire weather conditions possible Sunday with the potential
  for isolated high based afternoon storms Sunday and Monday.

- Warming through the middle of the work week with increasing chances
  for storms across southeast Colorado.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 328 AM MDT Sat May 25 2024

Currently...

A broad longwave trough was noted over California and was
progressing eastward. Quite a bit of mid level moisture was riding
in advance of this system and was pushing into the central mtn region
this morning. Regional radars were showing quite a bit of echoes
to our NW but believe most of this was not hitting the ground.

Locally, skies were clear over the region at 2 AM, with the
exception of mid and high clouds over the central mtns region, with
isolated patches of high clouds over the San Luis Valley (SLV).
Temps at this hour were generally in the 5os over the plains with
40s in the valleys. Mtns were generally in the 30s.

Today...

With trough pushing eastward, lee troughing will intensify and
downslope flow will increase. Likewise, expect a quite warm and
breezy/windy day over the fcst area. By mid afternoon, expect
southwest winds gusting to 40 to 50 mph over the valleys and 30 to
40 mph winds over parts of the I-25 corridor, with the strongest
flow over the southern I-25 corridor. Farther east winds will be in
the 30 to 35 mph range. Max temps over the plains will range in the
mid 70s across El Paso county to the L90s over the far eastern
plains. Valleys should be in the 60s.

As the trough pushes east, showers will start to increase over the
CONTDVD region, with scattered pops likely during the afternoon time
period. A few of these showers may push into the higher elevations
of the Pikes Peak region by late afternoon.

As for fire weather, meteorological conditions for extreme fire
behavior will occur over most of the plains today, however fuels are
not favorable (except for elevations below 7500 feet over the east
slopes of the southern mtns, and thus over this region a Red Flag
Warning is in effect).

Tonight...

As the trough pushes east over the region. surface flow will shift
to more northwesterly as the evening progresses, and temps in the
lower levels will gradually decrease. Precip chances along the
CONTDVD will continue, especially north of US50. there will be a
continued chance of shower over the Pikes Peak region early this
evening. By the early morning hours, precip chances will
significantly decrease all areas. Morning lows should be in the 40s
and 50s plains with 30 over the larger valleys. Temps in the mtns
will cool to the 20s and 30s. /Hodanish

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 328 AM MDT Sat May 25 2024

Sunday-Memorial Day...Moderate northwest flow aloft behind Sunday`s
passing shortwave moderates into Memorial Day Monday, with upper
level ridging building into the Rockies. Breezy northwest winds over
and near the higher terrain late Saturday night expands out across
the southeast Plains through the morning behind the systems cool
front, leading to temperatures being some 5 to 10 degrees cooler
than Saturday across the region on Sunday. Despite the cooler
temperatures, drier air advecting into the region will lead to
critical fire weather conditions across portions of the southeast
mtns and plains Sunday morning and afternoon. With that said, we
are not issuing any fire wx highlights at this time, with only a
small portion of the southeast mtns deemed with critical fuels
attm. Otherwise, will continue to see some orographic snow showers
across the Central Mtns Sunday morning, with a few possible high
based showers across the Central Mtns into the Pikes Peak region
Sunday afternoon. The moderating flow aloft on Monday will lower
the fire danger across the area, however, models do indicate
enough instability over and near the higher terrain to support
isolated high based showers/storms Monday afternoon, with the
potential for a few storms to push east across the Plains into
Monday evening. These storms will again be high based, producing
more wind than any accumulating precipitation. Temperatures on
Monday rebound back to around seasonal levels in the mid 70s to
mid 80s across the Plains and mainly in 50s and 60s across the
higher terrain and in the 60s to lower 70s across high mountain
valleys.

Tuesday-Friday...Weak westerly flow aloft on Tuesday becomes more
southwest through the middle of next week, with temperatures
expected to be at to slightly above seasonal levels through this
period. This, along with increasing low level moisture within south
to southeast low level flow leads to increasing chances of afternoon
showers and storms across the eastern mtns and plains through the
middle of next week. Models again are indicating enough instability
in place for few stronger storms across the Plains, especially
Tuesday and Wednesday.

By Thursday, latest models indicate a stronger system moving across
the Rockies with the potential for stronger storms along a dryline
pushing east across the plains, before the passing systems cold
front brings better chances of more widespread precipitation, storms
and colder temperatures on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 542 AM MDT Sat May 25 2024

VFR conditons are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3
taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS.

Gusty southwest winds will become an issue at all of the taf
sites by early afternoon, lasting into the evening hours. some
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR will be possible at KCOS this evening.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
evening for COZ225.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH