Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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869 FXUS65 KPUB 181706 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1106 AM MDT Sat May 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Some scattered showers and storms today, forming over the mountains and moving east this afternoon. - Warm, dry, and windy conditions expected on Sunday and Monday, with a low chance for isolated thunderstorms across the eastern plains both days. - Higher chances for showers and thunderstorms across portions of the higher terrain and plains Tuesday and Tuesday night. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 332 AM MDT Sat May 18 2024 Generally zonal flow aloft today with east-southeasterly flow settling in across the eastern plains. High temperatures will be comparable to yesterday if a few degrees cooler in places, with low- mid 80s over the plains and mid-70s across the valleys and higher terrain. Showers and storms are expected to initiate over the mountains shortly after midday today, first over the mountain peaks before steering flow pushes activity to the east. Models vary on the amount of convection that is able to sustain on the plains this afternoon, but some scattered showers are expected along and east of I-25, mostly north of highway 50. There will be plenty of directional shear given the upper-level flow pattern, but modest CAPE with some easterly upslope. Models have been showing around 300- 500 J/kg at most. In general, some thunder from high-based thunderstorms will be possible along with gusty outflow and some small hail, especially over and near the Palmer Divide. Otherwise, precipitation will wane later this evening and lead to warm overnight lows. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 332 AM MDT Sat May 18 2024 Upper trough will be situated across the western CONUS at the start of next week, with southwesterly flow in place across the region. This will support additional warming for both Sunday and Monday, along with windier conditions. Still don`t anticipate any overly strong winds or gusts during this time, however, these winds combined with the warmth and anticipated drier conditions will support widespread critical fire weather conditions on both days. As previously noted, fuels across most of southern Colorado are not critical at this time, and don`t anticipate any fire weather headlines at this time. While precip chances don`t look overly high on both days, will need to closely monitor the potential for isolated thunderstorm development across the plains. First, on Sunday, higher instability and moisture will linger across the plains early in the day. With daytime mixing, will see much drier air push east across the plains, focusing the higher moisture and instability just to the east in Kansas. That being said, there is a small window for isolated thunderstorm development along the moisture discontinuity, especially as a shortwave trough looks to push across the region. While chances are low and the window for development is small, can`t completely rule it out, especially as HREF paintballs showing several members developing storms east of a Kim to Lamar line. If a storm were to develop, there is also a low chance for it to be severe given the extent of the instability and shear. For Monday, confidence for thunderstorm development across the plains is lower, but guidance is indicating this moisture/instability surging back into Colorado. It`s quite possible we see another small window for possible strong to severe storm development across the eastern plains Monday afternoon into early evening. Deepening surface low ahead of additional shortwave energy could easily support this development, especially with a weak to moderately unstable air mass in place. Still monitoring placement and trends with a front trying to dive south across the plains Monday night. Even if it were to move into a portion of the area during this time, most guidance keeping precip development to the north. By Tuesday, will see the previously mentioned trough dig across the region and move into the Colorado area by later in the day. At this point, the risk for critical fire weather conditions looks low, but could easily see another day of windier and drier conditions across portions of southern Colorado. What is appearing more likely is returning forcing and focus for showers and thunderstorms across the central mountains east into the plains, along and north of Highway 50. Low confidence on the details, but at this point, snow and impacts across the mountains look to be low. Additionally, instability looks to be limited at this time, which should keep the risk of severe weather low. With the departure of this system, a return to westerly flow with warm and dry weather looks to be in store to end the period. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1100 AM MDT Sat May 18 2024 There will be a chance of some thunder/gusty outflow winds moving across KCOS and KPUB later this afternoon. Best chance will be between 22 UTC and 01 UTC. Otherwise expect VFR at KCOS and KPUB through the period. KALS should remain clear next 24h. Enhanced diurnal wind flow is expected this afternoon as a cool front has pushed across the region. It will be clear and dry tonight with light diurnal flow. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO LONG TERM...RODRIGUEZ AVIATION...HODANISH