Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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448 FXUS65 KPUB 220934 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 334 AM MDT Wed May 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Spotty critical conditions possible zone 225 (S mtns) today. - Very isolated thunder later this afternoon/early evening plains mainly S of US50. - Critical fire weather conditions will be widespread for elevations below 7500 ft in vicinity of the Sangres and Wets on Thursday during the afternoon and early evening hours. - Isolated afternoon and early evening thunderstorms will be possible over the higher terrain for Thursday and Friday, mainly north of Highway 50, with a lesser chance over the plains. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will become more likely this weekend, especially on Sunday, with better chances for the plains. - Isolated thunderstorms possible over the higher terrain on Monday and Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 324 AM MDT Wed May 22 2024 Currently... A few showers were pushing out of the region over the fare eastern plains in Baca county at 2 AM. Besides some clouds over the Raton Mesa, skies were clear across the fcst area. Temps at 2 AM over the plains ranged from the mid 30s across N El Paso county to upper 40s over Baca county. Valleys were in the 30s with 10s and 20s in the high country. Today and Tonight... An overall quiet pattern next 24 hours. In the immediate short term, some frost will be possible over the northern sections of El Paso county early this AM. Otherwise expect temperatures to rise into the upper 60s across N El Paso county to around 80 along the US50 corridor from Pueblo to the KS border. OVer the Valleys today expect upper 60s, with 40s and 50s over the mtns. As for any convection today, we may see some isolated high based convection later this afternoon and early evening over the plains, with the best chance south of US50. main concerns would be an occasional isolated CG and brief gusty winds. As for fire weather, only lower elevations of zone 225 (S Mtns) is in the critical fuel category, and spotty critical fire weather conditions will be possible, as winds will be near the 25 mph range and RH values will down near 15 percent over the lower elevations of the 225 zone. Over the San Luis Valley meteorological conditions are imminent today, but fuels are not favorable. For tonight, a clear night is anticipated with warmer min temps as compared to this mornings lows. Expect lows in the 40s to L50s plains and 30s valleys. /Hodanish && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 324 AM MDT Wed May 22 2024 Thursday through Friday... An upper level low will propagate into Wyoming from upstream, which will allow for a tightening of the pressure gradient and increasing southwesterly flow at the surface. This will help to advect in a drier airmass out of the southwest region and result in dropping relative humidities for the region on Thursday. Because the fuels are still critical for the lower elevations (below 7500 ft) in vicinity of the Sangre de Cristo and Wet Mountains, these areas will be susceptible to critical fire weather conditions by later in the afternoon as winds increase and once RH values tank. There will also be some moisture advection with westerly flow in the mid-levels, which will allow for afternoon showers and thunderstorms to develop over the higher terrain with the aid of orographic lifting, although model data indicates that the majority of this convection will remain confined to the central mountains where the best swath of mid- level moisture will be located. High elevation snow will also occur, mainly over the central mountains. There could also be some thunderstorms initiating over the Ramparts/Pikes Peak Region (PPR), that move over into the Palmer Divide area. Downsloping winds over the lower elevations will also allow for temperatures to become quite warm, with many locations over the plains and especially within the lower Arkansas River Valley to top out near the 90 degree mark on Thursday. For Friday, as the U/L low continues to propagate eastward and further away from the region, this will allow for the pressure gradient to loosen and therefore winds will not be as strong. That being said, there will still be some spotty areas of fire weather conditions where fuels are still critical and may need additional highlights. It will remain mostly dry for most of SE Colorado, with the only exception being over the higher terrain and especially north of Highway 50 again, where the best residual mid-level moisture will be. A weak cold frontal boundary associated with the exiting U/L low will move through early in the morning and switch winds to a northerly direction which will help to advect in cooler temperatures and therefore highs, especially for the plains, will be notably cooler by some 10 to 15 degrees. Saturday through Sunday... It will begin to become more active during this period in the forecast as a major shortwave trough over well upstream begins to slowly make its way towards the region and allows for an increase of moisture and instability. Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will be more widely scattered over the higher terrain, with some high elevation snow likely increasing and additional accumulations likely, especially across the central mountains. As indicated with increasing PWAT values, chances of showers and thunderstorms will also increase over the plains, especially for locations north of Highway 50. As the U/L low associated with this major shortwave progresses southeastward, it will further increase chances of precipitation across the region, although there is some deviation with the deterministic models about the timing and progression of this. The ECMWF has the progression being quicker and therefore drying out sooner on Sunday, whereas the GFS has the U/L low passing just to the north midday on Sunday, resulting in much more convection. It can be determined which model resolves this feature the best in the upcoming days. Monday through Tuesday... A cold front will move through with the major shortwave on Sunday, which will result in cooler temperatures for highs on Monday. With high pressure building back in behind it and a ridge strengthening upstream, there will be mostly dry conditions, with only a few isolated afternoon storms over the higher terrain. The ridge moving over on Tuesday will cause temperatures to rebound quickly with warmer temps, and mostly dry conditions remaining in place. -Stewey && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1049 PM MDT Tue May 21 2024 VFR conditions expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24 hours. Skies clear with generally light diurnal wind regimes developing overnight. Breezy south to southeast winds at COS and PUB tomorrow afternoon, with gusty southwest winds at ALS once again tomorrow afternoon. Showers and storms to be more isolated tomorrow and look to remain confined to the higher terrain. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for COZ225. Frost Advisory until 8 AM MDT this morning for COZ084. && $$ UPDATE...MW SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...STEWARD AVIATION...MW