Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
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371 FXUS62 KRAH 300604 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 204 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will move through the area tonight, bringing a reinforcing shot of cooler/drier air to the area for the rest of the week. High pressure will build in behind the front and remain in place across the Mid Atlantic through Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 925 PM Wednesday... The front currently crossing the forecast area doesn`t have much of a temperature difference nor a wind difference, but can primarily be detected by a dewpoint gradient - RDU`s 9pm dewpoint was 50 degrees while Rocky Mount`s was 65. As expected, all isolated showers that developed were north or east of the forecast area, and it appears that the rest of the night will remain dry. Although there are currently a good amount of mid level clouds across the state, skies should become mostly clear after midnight. Overnight lows will be a couple degrees cooler than last night, with nearly all locations in the 50s and some isolated low 60s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 237 PM Wednesday... Troughing will remain in place on Thursday. Much like today, a weak shortwave aloft will rotate through the flow, over the mountains, and into the Piedmont. However, Thursday`s wave will be displaced much farther south and there are about 15-20/100 ensemble members suggesting precip across portions of the northern Coastal Plain late tomorrow afternoon into the evening. There will be very little to no instability available by the time the wave arrives late in the day so anything that develops should have a very limited thunder threat. Similarly, given dry air in place across the area, QPF will be limited to a few hundredths of an inch or less. Temps Thursday will be a few degrees lower than today - highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Friday morning lows still in the low to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 200 AM Thursday... A series of northern stream lows will track eastward through Canada through the middle of next week, with a number of s/w disturbances rotating about the lows potentially impacting the weather across the mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. The sub-tropical ridge will progress slowly eastward through the area Sat/Sat night as a s/w trough move eastward through the MS Valley. This s/w will then continue generally eastward across the Appalachians and through the mid- Atlantic Sun/Mon, however the timing and track differ between the medium-range guidance. Another s/w will follow behind it but, similar to the first s/w, the model differences continue wrt timing and track. A northern stream s/w ejecting eastward from a low over western Canada will deepen as it moves along the US/Canada border Tue/Wed, closing off over then tracking eastward through the Great Lakes Wed/Wed night. At the surface, cool high pressure move slowly esewd through the Carolinas Sat/Sat night. The high will move ese to off the Carolina/Southeast US coast on Sun, where it should sit through Mon then slowly drift eastward Tue/Wed. A warm front should lift through the area Sun night/Mon, with southerly return flow once again advecting warm, moist air into the area through early next week. Surface flow should become increasingly swly as the high shifts further offshore, with more of a Gulf influence by mid-week. A bit of a low confidence precipitation forecast from Sun through Wed given the uncertainty wrt the shortwaves. For now, expect largely dry weather through Sun, with chances for precipitation returning for Sun night through Wed. Temperatures should be near to slightly below normal through Sun, then return to near/above normal and moderate through mid next week. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 135 AM Thursday... There is high confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period ending at 06z Friday. An upper level disturbance moving through the area during the evening and overnight hours may bring a passing shower INVOF RWI after midnight. However, given the limited moisture little to no impacts are expected. Otherwise, light N-NWLY winds are expected behind the exiting cold front. Outlook: Dry VFR weather likely through Saturday with high pressure overhead/offshore. As the high moves offshore Sunday, return flow will advect moisture into the area with stratus/non-VFR weather possible Sunday and Monday. Chances for rain will also return Sunday through early next week. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Leins NEAR TERM...Green SHORT TERM...Leins LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...CBL/Leins