Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
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678 FXUS62 KRAH 220031 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 830 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the western Atlantic will extend across the Southeast ahead of a cold front that will approach from the west and become quasi-stationary from the Middle Atlantic to the lower MS Valley Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 830 PM Tuesday... The proverbial "forecast problem of the day" for the evening update will once again be related to any fog development overnight/early tomorrow morning. There has been a discernible eastward shift in the ensemble probabilities for reduced visbys in fog, with the best chance generally along and east of the I-95 corridor. Otherwise, tranquil weather and moderating temps will be the theme over next 36 hours. May see some thin cirrus across the western counties as a weak upper disturbance moves through the area. Under mostly clear skies, lows ranging from the mid/upper 50s in the cooler locations, to lower/mid 60s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM Tuesday... Surface high pressure will continue to influence much of the Mid- Atlantic and Southeastern US Wednesday. Some patchy fog/low stratus in the early morning hours over the Coastal plain region will clear out by early morning and result in a mostly sunny day. Dry conditions will continue through the day with light south-southwest winds. Temperatures will be 6 to 7 degrees above normal with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s, and lows in the low to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 245 PM Tuesday... The general theme for the Thursday through Tuesday timeframe is for increasingly unsettled weather as a cold front moves in. A series of upper level disturbances in west-southwesterly flow aloft will augment the chances for showers and storms at times. The most predictable times for precip appear to be on Thursday with the initial cold front and then on Friday with an upper disturbance with which the GFS and ECMWF are fairly consistent. Beyond that the upper level features appear to be relatively subtle until perhaps early next week when models project a surface low moving through the Ohio Valley and another cold moving into the region. Rainfall through next Tuesday is forecast to total half an inch to an inch on average, but there will certainly be some areas that receive more in heavier showers, and thunderstorms. Slightly greater rainfall is forecast across northern North Carolina into Virginia. Temperatures should be slightly above normal Thursday and Friday in the mind and upper 80s, likely trending back to normal over the weekend with increased coverage of clouds and convection, although confidence is somewhat low given 10 degree temperature spreads in the some ensemble guidance owing to the uncertainty in the timing of precip. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 730 PM Tuesday... 24 hour TAF period: High confidence VFR conditions will prevail at KINT, KGSO, and KRDU through the TAF period. Lower confidence for KFAY and KRWI. Fog will be possible again tonight, mainly during the pre-dawn hours, however there is some disagreement between model solutions wrt the westward extent of the fog and thus how low vsbys will go at those two terminals. For now, will keep the restrictions in a tempo group at KFAY given the slightly lower confidence there. At KRWI, slightly higher confidence of at least a few hours of sub- VFR vsbys, lowest during the pre-dawn hours but possible anytime after 06Z. A return to VFR conditions is expected with sunrise. Winds should generally be calm to light and variable tonight, becoming sswly at 4-7 kts during the day Wed. -KC Looking ahead: There will be a chance of showers/storms at INT/GSO Thursday afternoon, then diurnally driven showers/storms will be possible at all terminals Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. -Green && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...BLS AVIATION...KC/Green