Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
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100 FXUS62 KRAH 201748 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 145 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain along the East Coast through Wednesday before a cold front approaches the region Thursday and brings unsettled weather into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 145 PM Monday... Weak high pressure is currently centered along the coast of New Jersey. This has allowed the wind to continue out of the northeast, providing slightly below normal temperatures. A wide area of low stratus from early this morning has transitioned to diurnal cumulus, with slightly greater coverage across the eastern half of the forecast area. These clouds should quickly dissipate around sunset, leaving clear skies during the evening and into the overnight hours. Considering there has been minimal change in the air mass, expect that some cloud cover should regenerate overnight as temperatures cool off. However, think that the coverage of clouds will be a bit less than last night, primarily affecting areas along and east of I- 95. There could be some some patchy fog around, but there is not enough confidence to include this in the forecast. Tonight`s low should be similar to last night`s values and the coolest out of the next seven days, in the 50s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 355 AM Monday... A weak mid-level trough will move across the cntl Appalachians and Middle Atlantic through 12Z Wed, while ridging will otherwise extend across the Southeast. Surface high pressure that will initially extend along the Middle Atlantic coast will drift offshore and result in the development of sely/"return" flow Tue afternoon and mainly calm Tue night. High temperatures should respond and increase into the lwr-mid 80s, followed by another night of strong radiational cooling into mostly the mid-upr 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 311 AM Monday... Upper pattern through the extended: Mid-level ridging over the eastern US will shift offshore through Wednesday evening. A low- amplitude upper trough will then lift through the Great Lakes Thursday. A short wave will then move through the TN Valley and wash out over central NC Friday into the weekend. Wednesday: The western ridge of an offshore sfc high will extend light sswly flow across central NC on Wednesday. Void of forcing for ascent and lingering below normal PWAT, Wednesday will remain dry. Given the sswly flow, however, temps will begin to steadily rise reaching the mid 80s Wednesday afternoon. Warm overnight lows in the lower 60s is expected. Thursday through Sunday. Ensembles continue to suggest the potential for periods of rain over this time as upper forcing from the aforementioned upper features move overhead. On Thursday, an upper trough will lift through the Great Lakes. Some mid-level energy associated with this feature may trickle down into our northern locations and promote showers/storms later in the day. However, the better forcing and low-level moisture transport appears to stay well to our north, and thus continue to maintain just slight chance to low chance POPs across our central to northern areas during this time. From Friday onward, ensembles continue to simulate a potentially potent short wave riding through the TN Valley and eventually over central NC through Sunday. Periods of rain look promising over this temporal period, the details of which are hard to pin down at this point. Severe weather parameters are not popping off the charts at this point, but periods of higher shear could promote some isolated stronger storms especially Friday afternoon/evening. There is high probabilities amongst ensembles that temperatures will exceed the mid 80s both Thursday and Friday. The quartile spread widens a bit more over the weekend, likely due to differing solutions wrt to any sfc boundaries. Regardless, temps will likely remain in the 80s this upcoming weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 130 PM Monday... TAF period: There are some lingering MVFR ceilings in the region, but expect that all locations should generally have low VFR diurnal cumulus through the afternoon. Conditions will clear out tonight, then another round of restrictions are expected late tonight into Tuesday morning. RWI is favored for restrictions based on climatology and is the only site with IFR restrictions forecast. Elsewhere, blended guidance and persistence from observations this morning, giving a tempo site at other terminals for MVFR fog. Wind will continue to be out of the northeast through the period, becoming lighter/calm overnight. Outlook: Wednesday morning could have yet another round of restrictions, although most guidance is showing that most restrictions should be contained to the eastern third of the state, locally only impacting RWI. Otherwise, the forecast will be dry through Thursday afternoon, then diurnally driven showers/thunderstorms are expected into the weekend. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Green NEAR TERM...Green SHORT TERM...MWS LONG TERM...Luchetti AVIATION...Green