970
FXUS62 KRAH 280559
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
159 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the area later tonight and early
Tuesday. Another dry front moves through the area late Wednesday,
followed by high pressure building in for the latter half of the
week.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 811 PM Monday...

The Tornado Watch has been cancelled early for our CWA as the
thunderstorm activity have moved northeast. A few isolated showers
are possible through early evening over the NW Piedmont, otherwise
dry conditions expected through the night. Skies will slowly clear
west to east overnight with temperatures ranging from mid 60s NW to
low 70s across the SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 PM Monday...

A longwave trough will be over the Eastern US on Tuesday and Tuesday
night, as any shortwave energy stays well to our north. At the
surface, a cold front that pushed through central NC on Monday night
and Tuesday morning will linger over eastern NC through the day. So
a stray shower or storm can`t be entirely ruled out in the far SE
(mainly Sampson County) in the afternoon, so have slight chance POPs
there, but otherwise it will be dry and mostly sunny across the
region. NW flow behind the cold front will bring much lower dew
points in the 50s. However, it will take a while for the cooler air
to get here, so expect another warmer-than-normal day with highs in
the mid-to-upper-80s, maybe touching 90 in the far south. Lows
Tuesday night will be in the upper-50s to mid-60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 400 PM Monday...

The extended period looks to be largely dry through at least
Saturday. Mid/upper troughing will linger over the Eastern Seaboard
from Wednesday through Friday, with a series of embedded shortwaves
moving within it. A particularly vigorous one looks to move SE
across the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday night and Friday. However, these
systems look moisture starved. The 12z GFS and CMC do spit out light
precipitation in the Coastal Plain on Thursday night/early Friday,
so added slight chance POPs there, but no significant rain is
expected. Cool surface high pressure building down from the Great
Lakes will bring a downward trend in temperatures through the
workweek, with near-normal highs on Wednesday dropping to 5-10
degrees below normal (mid-to-upper-70s) by Friday. Lows will drop
into the upper-40s to lower-50s on Saturday morning. The surface
high and associated mid/upper ridging will build over central NC on
Saturday, bringing another dry day with highs increasing back to
upper-70s to lower-80s. A weak shortwave may move across the area on
Sunday/Monday, and the ECMWF and a minority of its ensembles have
some precipitation. So carry slight chance POPs on these days, but
the GFS and CMC are dry and confidence in any significant rain is
low.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 155 AM Tuesday...

RWI will likely bounce around between 2-3SM while thin cirrus
spreads in from the southwest. Timing the upper level clouds to move
out to TEMPO LIFR fog given recent observations and saturated ground
from moderate rainfall yesterday afternoon. Latest guidance shows a
tongue of patchy fog and low stratus developing over upstate SC into
the southern Piedmont of NC towards daybreak, but should remain
south of the Triad terminals (GSO/INT) as dew points have already
dropped into the low/mid 60s. A cold front will move through the
area through the early morning hours with a NW wind shift at all
terminals by 13z. Surface winds will increase to around 10 kts with
gusts up to 15-20 kts possible during the afternoon. Showers and
isolated storms may form along the seabreeze this afternoon, but
should remain southeast of FAY.

Outlook: Mostly VFR conditions should persist through Saturday as
dry high pressure wedges in.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...Danco
LONG TERM...Danco
AVIATION...Swiggett/Green