498
FXUS65 KREV 250934
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
234 AM PDT Sat May 25 2024


.SYNOPSIS...

Warming temperatures, afternoon breezes and dry conditions will
persist through early next week. Precipitation potential is limited
to the Sierra on Monday afternoon with a 10-15% chance of showers
and isolated thunder. Otherwise, the overall warming trend
continues into early next week with above normal temperatures
projected. Mid to late next week, the warmer temperatures may be
disrupted by another trough passage.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Key Points:

* Mild daytime highs will persist through early next week as
  temperatures climb to above average values on Sunday. Uncertainty
  arises later next week as some simulations indicate another dip in
  temperatures by Wed-Thu.

* Plan on North-Northwest Winds today with enhanced breezes and
  gusts 25-35 mph. Sunday will feature light winds while Memorial
  Day brings a return of the more typical westerly afternoon
  breezes. Late day zephyr breezes will persist each afternoon
  through early next week.

* Plan on continued dry conditions for today and Sunday with only a
  a 10-15% chance of a shower or storm for the Sierra Monday
  afternoon. Higher chances for showers may pop up by Tuesday-
  Wednesday as a Pacific Northwest trough edges toward the Sierra
  and western Nevada.

Overall, Memorial Day weekend weather is going to be fairly tame
with average temperatures, fairly typical breezes, and low chances
for showers and storms (primarily on Monday for the Sierra). We hope
that everyone takes a moment to remember those who defended and
protected our nation, to recreate safely and responsibly, or even
rest this long weekend. The night shift here at the office will
definitely be calling dibs on option 3.

As the trough continues to drop through the region today, northwest
breezes will kick up late this afternoon. The winds may be strong
enough to create chop on area lakes, so be aware of the changing
conditions late in the day. In the wake of the trough, shortwave
ridging gets a chance to take hold Sunday into Tuesday to bring
about a warming trend through the Holiday weekend. The shortwave
ridge won`t stick around very long as a Pac NW trough attempts to
steal the spotlight. Mid to late next week is where the most
uncertainty lies in the upcoming forecast. Blended guidance shows a
wide spread in daytime forecast highs for Reno with a range of 71 to
90 degrees for Friday. Right now 28% of the ensemble clusters are
showing the ridge hanging on through Friday which hedges the
forecast toward the trough solution. Another trough passage would
bring a cool down, enhanced breezes and the potential for some
showers for the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe. This forecast
certainly isn`t locked in, but keeping the cozy sweatshirts handy is
a good bet for mid to late next week.

-Edan

&&

.AVIATION...

* Today: VFR conditions with light winds Saturday AM. W-NW breezes
  return between 18-20Z, with gusts 20-30kts. Winds will taper to
  light and variable for most terminals between Sun 04-06z.

* Sunday-Monday: Plan on dry, VFR conditions. Lightest winds will be
  on Sunday with afternoon breezes up to 20kts possible. Warmer
  temperatures will allow for the typical westerly zephyr afternoon
  winds to return with gusts up to 25kts possible. There will also
  be a 10-15% chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms in the
  afternoon along the Sierra crest.

-Edan

&&


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$