Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
932 FXUS65 KREV 010906 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 206 AM PDT Sat Jun 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Above average temperatures and mainly dry conditions will persist through early next week with a couple of weak weather systems enhancing afternoon winds today and Monday. Confidence is high in a significant warmup for mid-late next week as highs approach 100 degrees in hottest western NV valleys, with afternoon thunderstorms also possible mid to late week. && .DISCUSSION... * OVERVIEW: No major changes to the forecast. A few light showers are possible across Lassen/N. Washoe/Pershing counties Saturday afternoon and Monday. After those troughs swing by, high pressure sneaks in across the southwestern US and takes hold for most of next week. A noteworthy warm-up is in store next week because of this ridge, with lower NV valleys likely reaching into the upper 90`s, if not exceeding 100 degrees. Otherwise, for the foreseeable future it will remain sunny, hot, and dry. * CHANCES FOR PRECIP: Among the most recent CAMs (Convection- Allowing Models), there seems to be an increasing probability of some light rain across the region from US-50 northward this evening. There`s going to be a very weak and dry shortwave trough passing through today that could have just enough forcing to pop a few showers. Soundings from Lassen to Pershing counties tonight are still showing a 3km thick layer of dry air at the surface (aka inverted-V profiles, just with zero CAPE), so it looks like mostly virga. However, if we do get a slightly heavier shower, it may overcome that low-level dry air and there may be a few sprinkles of rain. Shifting to Monday: Another shortwave trough will be passing by, this time with more upper- level forcing from a stronger jetstreak. Most of the rain will be kept north of US-50 again, but this time the chance of rain actually hitting the ground will be significantly higher. As of right now these just look like quick moving, light showers. * TEMPS & WIND: There`s going to be a significant increase in temperatures next week. Lower NV valleys may hit the 100 degree mark for the first time this year while Sierra valleys will get up to the mid-80`s. The EC EFI is already highlighting Thursday through Saturday`s high temperatures as a climatologically significant event. So if you haven`t already, make sure you have working A/C and/or access to a cooling device. Even overnight lows will be relatively warm compared to the past couple weeks. As for winds, it`ll be breezy through next week with just enhanced zephyr breezes today and Monday. * IMPACTS & EXTENDED OUTLOOK: Continue to exercise extreme caution if you are recreating near fast and cold streams as hypothermia can quickly catch you off guard if you are not prepared. Also, expect rivers to have higher flows in the evening hours due to increased snowmelt during the day followed by the lag time it takes for that water to flow down down the mountain. Last but not least, we may see some afternoon thunderstorms return to the Sierra and western NV as early as Wednesday next week. As of right now, ensembles haven`t picked up on any showers next week, but over the next few days be prepared to see those PoPs increase. -Justin && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail through today and Sunday. Increased winds out of the WSW on this afternoon, with gusts peaking around 25-30 kts between 20-06Z. Expect some brief light to moderate turbulence during that time as well. -Justin && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$