Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
616 FXUS65 KREV 230946 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 246 AM PDT Thu May 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Enhanced afternoon breezes return for Friday and Saturday. Low chances of afternoon showers Thursday and storms Friday. Near seasonal temperatures today through Saturday with a warming trend starting in earnest Sunday and continuing into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Key Points: * Near seasonal temperatures today through Saturday with warming trend starting Sunday and continuing into next week. * Upper short wave troughs swinging through the region Friday and Saturday will bring enhanced afternoon and evening breezes. Otherwise, look for typical afternoon breezes Sunday onward. * Even though the region will remain mostly dry, there is a low end chance for a shower or two this afternoon with isolated storm chances increasing slightly Friday that returns for Memorial day. TODAY INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY: Some mid and high level clouds will be the only tell-tail signs this morning of an upper trough spinning across NV from an upper low that is projected to lift into the northern portions of the inter- mountain west today. This motion aloft will help eject this errant upper low further east at least. For now we will have to accept what nature gives us with a northerly flow aloft dampening temperatures across the region to near to slightly below seasonal readings mostly in the low to mid 50s with a few fortunate valley areas rising into the high 50s to low 60s in the Sierra. Most valley locations across western NV will warm only into the 60s to low 70s. Therefore, dont expect any surprises as cooler and drier air is drawn south and east across western NV. Those hardy soles recreating in the Sierra this holiday weekend will see overnight lows staying chilly hovering around freezing through Sunday morning. Daytime highs will warm a few degrees above seasonal averages as upper ridging building into the West Coast gains greater influence across the region. Western NV valleys will at least see afternoon highs warming nicely into the 80s. WINDS: Friday and Saturday will see another round of enhanced breezes with higher ridges on Friday gusting to 30-35 mph, and 35-40 mph on Saturday as another upper wave drags across northern CA/NV. Winds 20-30 mph will mix down info western NV valleys Friday afternoon with Saturday winds 30-35 mph during the afternoon and early evening before diminishing overnight. The rest of the weekend will have lighter winds with typical west- northwest afternoon breezes returning for Sunday and Monday. SHOWERS: The only likely surprise would be the occurrence of a shower or two surprising locals around the Lake Tahoe Basin and surrounding higher elevation areas today. Although some moisture is retained over the higher terrain of the Sierra, this scenario only has a <10% chance since daytime surface heating looks to be the limiting factor needed to produce any worthwhile convective initiation this afternoon. Friday will see an increased potential (10-15% chance) for showers and an isolated storm or two across the higher terrain south into the eastern Sierra/Mono County and across parts of northeast CA into northwest NV. Storm initiation is dependent upon a number of factors like moisture, instability, and a lifting mechanism which areas north of Lake Tahoe to the OR border may well have with a better 15-20% chance for a clap of thunder. Saturday and Sunday will remain dry with Monday seeing a 15-20% for a few Sierra showers that includes a late afternoon/early evening storm or two. As stated in previous discussions, When Thunder Roars, Head Indoors! As stated in previous discussions, When Thunder Roars, Head Indoors! NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: Ensemble cluster guidance still brings in an upper ridge building into the western US through the early part of next week. Blended guidance also shows little variability through the first half of next week with a 50% chance of daytime highs in the mid to upper 80s continuing nicely. With the possible inclusion of low pressure once again digging into the western US after midweek, there is a widening range of likely outcomes. Anything after this point is pure speculation that surfaces to much uncertainty into forecast. Enjoy the beautiful holiday weekend! -Amanda && .AVIATION... * Look for VFR conditions to continue through the forecast period will fair skies and light N-NE winds for Tahoe/western NV terminals today. Winds this morning for KMMH will start light from the west less than 10kts, and become breezier from the W-SW at 15-20kts after 18-20Z. * Breezy winds gusting from the W-SW to 25kts return Fri/Sat afternoon through early evening for Sierra and WRN-NV terminals. There is a good chance for brief periods of light to moderate turbulence Fri/Sat. * Higher terrain areas around the central Sierra (KTRK) to include the Lake Tahoe Basin (KTVL) have a potential (<10%) of seeing a stray shower or two forming after 21-23Z. Isolated shower and thunderstorm chances increase to 15-20% Friday for NE-CA/NW-NV to the north towards the OR border, and south along the eastern Sierra/Mono County. * With the exception of gusty conditions Sat afternoon into the evening, weekend aviation interests should enjoy overall VFR conditions through the Memorial Day holiday weekend. -Amanda && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$