616
FXUS65 KREV 230946
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
246 AM PDT Thu May 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Enhanced afternoon breezes return for Friday and Saturday. Low
chances of afternoon showers Thursday and storms Friday. Near
seasonal temperatures today through Saturday with a warming trend
starting in earnest Sunday and continuing into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Key Points:

* Near seasonal temperatures today through Saturday with warming
  trend starting Sunday and continuing into next week.

* Upper short wave troughs swinging through the region Friday and
  Saturday will bring enhanced afternoon and evening breezes.
  Otherwise, look for typical afternoon breezes Sunday onward.

* Even though the region will remain mostly dry, there is a low end
  chance for a shower or two this afternoon with isolated storm
  chances increasing slightly Friday that returns for Memorial day.

TODAY INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY:

Some mid and high level clouds will be the only tell-tail signs this
morning of an upper trough spinning across NV from an upper low
that is projected to lift into the northern portions of the inter-
mountain west today. This motion aloft will help eject this
errant upper low further east at least. For now we will have to
accept what nature gives us with a northerly flow aloft dampening
temperatures across the region to near to slightly below seasonal
readings mostly in the low to mid 50s with a few fortunate valley
areas rising into the high 50s to low 60s in the Sierra. Most
valley locations across western NV will warm only into the 60s to
low 70s. Therefore, dont expect any surprises as cooler and drier
air is drawn south and east across western NV. Those hardy soles
recreating in the Sierra this holiday weekend will see overnight
lows staying chilly hovering around freezing through Sunday
morning. Daytime highs will warm a few degrees above seasonal
averages as upper ridging building into the West Coast gains
greater influence across the region. Western NV valleys will at
least see afternoon highs warming nicely into the 80s.

WINDS: Friday and Saturday will see another round of enhanced
breezes with higher ridges on Friday gusting to 30-35 mph, and
35-40 mph on Saturday as another upper wave drags across northern
CA/NV. Winds 20-30 mph will mix down info western NV valleys
Friday afternoon with Saturday winds 30-35 mph during the
afternoon and early evening before diminishing overnight. The rest
of the weekend will have lighter winds with typical west-
northwest afternoon breezes returning for Sunday and Monday.

SHOWERS: The only likely surprise would be the occurrence of a
shower or two surprising locals around the Lake Tahoe Basin and
surrounding higher elevation areas today. Although some moisture
is retained over the higher terrain of the Sierra, this scenario
only has a <10% chance since daytime surface heating looks to be
the limiting factor needed to produce any worthwhile convective
initiation this afternoon. Friday will see an increased potential
(10-15% chance) for showers and an isolated storm or two across
the higher terrain south into the eastern Sierra/Mono County and
across parts of northeast CA into northwest NV. Storm initiation
is dependent upon a number of factors like moisture, instability,
and a lifting mechanism which areas north of Lake Tahoe to the
OR border may well have with a better 15-20% chance for a clap of
thunder. Saturday and Sunday will remain dry with Monday seeing a
15-20% for a few Sierra showers that includes a late
afternoon/early evening storm or two. As stated in previous
discussions, When Thunder Roars, Head Indoors! As stated in
previous discussions, When Thunder Roars, Head Indoors!

NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND:

Ensemble cluster guidance still brings in an upper ridge building
into the western US through the early part of next week. Blended
guidance also shows little variability through the first half of
next week with a 50% chance of daytime highs in the mid to upper 80s
continuing nicely. With the possible inclusion of low pressure
once again digging into the western US after midweek, there is a
widening range of likely outcomes. Anything after this point is
pure speculation that surfaces to much uncertainty into forecast.
Enjoy the beautiful holiday weekend! -Amanda

&&

.AVIATION...

* Look for VFR conditions to continue through the forecast period
  will fair skies and light N-NE winds for Tahoe/western NV
  terminals today. Winds this morning for KMMH will start light
  from the west less than 10kts, and become breezier from the W-SW
  at 15-20kts after 18-20Z.

* Breezy winds gusting from the W-SW to 25kts return Fri/Sat
  afternoon through early evening for Sierra and WRN-NV terminals.
  There is a good chance for brief periods of light to moderate
  turbulence Fri/Sat.

* Higher terrain areas around the central Sierra (KTRK) to include
  the Lake Tahoe Basin (KTVL) have a potential (<10%) of seeing a
  stray shower or two forming after 21-23Z. Isolated shower and
  thunderstorm chances increase to 15-20% Friday for NE-CA/NW-NV
  to the north towards the OR border, and south along the eastern
  Sierra/Mono County.

* With the exception of gusty conditions Sat afternoon into the
  evening, weekend aviation interests should enjoy overall VFR
  conditions through the Memorial Day holiday weekend. -Amanda

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$