Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
498 FXUS65 KREV 250934 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 234 AM PDT Sat May 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Warming temperatures, afternoon breezes and dry conditions will persist through early next week. Precipitation potential is limited to the Sierra on Monday afternoon with a 10-15% chance of showers and isolated thunder. Otherwise, the overall warming trend continues into early next week with above normal temperatures projected. Mid to late next week, the warmer temperatures may be disrupted by another trough passage. && .DISCUSSION... Key Points: * Mild daytime highs will persist through early next week as temperatures climb to above average values on Sunday. Uncertainty arises later next week as some simulations indicate another dip in temperatures by Wed-Thu. * Plan on North-Northwest Winds today with enhanced breezes and gusts 25-35 mph. Sunday will feature light winds while Memorial Day brings a return of the more typical westerly afternoon breezes. Late day zephyr breezes will persist each afternoon through early next week. * Plan on continued dry conditions for today and Sunday with only a a 10-15% chance of a shower or storm for the Sierra Monday afternoon. Higher chances for showers may pop up by Tuesday- Wednesday as a Pacific Northwest trough edges toward the Sierra and western Nevada. Overall, Memorial Day weekend weather is going to be fairly tame with average temperatures, fairly typical breezes, and low chances for showers and storms (primarily on Monday for the Sierra). We hope that everyone takes a moment to remember those who defended and protected our nation, to recreate safely and responsibly, or even rest this long weekend. The night shift here at the office will definitely be calling dibs on option 3. As the trough continues to drop through the region today, northwest breezes will kick up late this afternoon. The winds may be strong enough to create chop on area lakes, so be aware of the changing conditions late in the day. In the wake of the trough, shortwave ridging gets a chance to take hold Sunday into Tuesday to bring about a warming trend through the Holiday weekend. The shortwave ridge won`t stick around very long as a Pac NW trough attempts to steal the spotlight. Mid to late next week is where the most uncertainty lies in the upcoming forecast. Blended guidance shows a wide spread in daytime forecast highs for Reno with a range of 71 to 90 degrees for Friday. Right now 28% of the ensemble clusters are showing the ridge hanging on through Friday which hedges the forecast toward the trough solution. Another trough passage would bring a cool down, enhanced breezes and the potential for some showers for the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe. This forecast certainly isn`t locked in, but keeping the cozy sweatshirts handy is a good bet for mid to late next week. -Edan && .AVIATION... * Today: VFR conditions with light winds Saturday AM. W-NW breezes return between 18-20Z, with gusts 20-30kts. Winds will taper to light and variable for most terminals between Sun 04-06z. * Sunday-Monday: Plan on dry, VFR conditions. Lightest winds will be on Sunday with afternoon breezes up to 20kts possible. Warmer temperatures will allow for the typical westerly zephyr afternoon winds to return with gusts up to 25kts possible. There will also be a 10-15% chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon along the Sierra crest. -Edan && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$