046
FXUS65 KREV 222009
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
109 PM PDT Wed May 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Breezy conditions across the region today as a trough exits. Enhanced
afternoon breezes return for Friday and Saturday. Low chances of
afternoon showers and storms Thursday and Friday. Temperatures
will start the weekend near seasonal averages and end the weekend
much above average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Breezy westerly winds today, with gusts in western Nevada to reach
30+ mph while gusts along Sierra ridges will climb to 55 to 60 mph.
Watch out for choppy waters on area lakes and take care if
backcountry recreation is in your plans for today. With the
exception of a few clouds over the Basin and Range associated with
the low pressure system that is moving eastward across the northern
Intermountain West, skies will remain sunny through the afternoon.

Thursday, a 10-15% chance for showers appears over the Tahoe Basin,
with <5% chance for wetting rains, and <10% chance for embedded
thunder. These may amount to little more than nuisance showers for
those recreating in the Tahoe Basin and along the Sierra crest, but
EFI guidance for CAPE says we cannot rule out a stray bolt of
lightning. When Thunder Roars, Head Indoors! Better chances for
showers and storms arrives for Friday, with the Northern Sierra
looking at 20-25% chances, while the Sierra in Mono County is closer
to 15-20% chances. The best chance to see wetting rains will be for
Lassen County, where we could see a couple hundredths of
precipitation. For areas mentioned above it remains a concern to see
a flash of lightning or hear a rumble of thunder in the vicinity of
active showers and storms.

Wow, what a weekend of favorable weather we have coming up for the
holiday! For those camping outdoors, the nights will be on the
chilly side, perfect sleeping weather for this forecaster. Sierra
overnights will range the lower to mid 30s Friday and Saturday
evening, upper 30s to near 40 for Sunday into Monday. For those
seeking camping conditions for western Nevada, plan on mid to upper
40s overnight Friday and Saturday, 50s overnight Sunday into Monday.
Daytime temperatures will become progressively warmer, starting the
weekend in the 60s for Sierra communities, but ending on Monday with
highs in the mid 70s. Western Nevada daytime temperatures will kick
this weekend off with mid to upper 70s, but by Monday we will see mid
80s creeping in. Friday and Saturday will be the breeziest days,
with ridges on Friday reaching 40-45 mph and for Saturday 50-55
mph. Leeside valleys for Friday will see 35-40 mph and for
Saturday 30-35 mph. The rest of the weekend will have lighter
winds with typical afternoon breezes returning for Sunday and
Monday.

The ridge that begins to build over the Western US for Monday, the
one responsible for the clear skies and warming temperatures, will
continue it`s influence on our weather pattern into early next
week. This could once again have us making a run at 90 degrees in
Reno, although there is a bit of uncertainty in the temperature
spread. It looks like some guidance is trying to draw another low
out of the Gulf of Alaska over the Pacific Northwest for the
latter half of next week, which could keep temperatures in check
if it does impact our weather. It could also produce a shower or
two along the Sierra, which cannot be ruled out this time of year
when any bit of instability increase is found along the Sierra crest.


HRICH

&&

.AVIATION...

* VFR sky conditions today over the Sierra. Gusty westerly winds are
  already impacting many area terminals this morning, with gusts
  reaching 25-30 kts through 04z for all area terminals. LLWS is
  possible across the region, with KMMH seeing potential for LLWS
  and turbulence today. After 04Z, winds becoming NW as they taper
  into the overnight.

* Shower and storm chances will appear over KTVL and KTRK for
  early Thursday afternoon, a 10-15% chance. A stray bolt of
  lightning is not out of the question. Friday the storm chances
  increase, but this time for KSVE and KMMH. Chances will be
  around 20-25% for KSVE, 15-20% for KMMH. Once again, lightning
  and embedded thunder cannot be ruled out for Friday.

* Weekend aviators will have some gusty winds on Saturday to contend
  with, but overall VFR conditions will prevail.

HRICH

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening NVZ004.

CA...None.
&&

$$