Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
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822 FXUS65 KRIW 200934 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 334 AM MDT Mon May 20 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool and wet weather returns to the area today into Tuesday. - Several inches of snow are likely in the northern mountains tonight and Tuesday. - Below normal temperatures and continued chances of showers continue through the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 AM MDT Mon May 20 2024 After a few days of typical May weather, the pattern will take a step back in the time machine and make things look more like April. Colder air has filtered into the area this morning. The main driver of the weather over the next couple of days will be a deep trough now over the Pacific Northwest that will slowly drift eastward and bring a period of wet weather. The steadiest precipitation today will be focused along a right rear / left front jet couplet that will move across the area. This will focus the heaviest precipitation roughly from Sweetwater County through Fremont and into Natrona Counties, but all areas will have a chance of some showers and even an isolated thunderstorm. The thing many will notice are the temperatures, which will average 15 degrees cooler then yesterday and similar amounts below normal. This will continue into tonight. The main player then becomes the trough that will close off into an upper level low that will slowly move across northern Wyoming. And, that will transition the steadiest and heaviest precipitation to northern Wyoming, with lesser amount further south, especially on the other side of the divide. And that transitions another concern, the mountain snow, how much of it and the impacts of it. Models have finally come into somewhat better agreement in putting the greatest QPF across the northern ranges, mainly the Bighorns, Absarokas and to a lesser extent, the eastern Wind River Range with more favorable upslope flow developing. Maximum impacts will travel from west to east, with the heaviest in the Eastern Wind Rivers and Absarokas late tonight into Tuesday morning, and the Bighorns on Tuesday. As for highlights, we have gone with advisories rather than warnings. Why you ask? Well, amounts in the Wind Rivers are in the advisory range. In the Absarokas, there are some locations with warning level amounts, with a few areas in the southern Absarokas having a greater than 2 in 3 chance of 12 inches or more. However, these are in areas with few people, roads or impacts. The Bighorn range has the best chance, with a decent area having around 1 in 2 chance of 12 inches or more. The difference here is that the heaviest snow will occur during the day on Tuesday. And the combination of the high sun angle and warm ground temperatures will make it difficult for snow to accumulate on roads during the day. So, we went with advisories here as well. As for snow levels, the coldest most 700 millibar temperatures get is around minus 4, which would put snow levels at around 6500 feet. So, lower elevations look to have mainly rain. A place like Dubois could see a coating though. And I can`t rule out some flakes in the air at night if rates are heavy enough in the lower elevations. QPF amounts look to average between 0.25 and 0.90 inches across most of the area. As for the threat of flooding, it looks low right now. The rain should fall over a long period of time for one. We have also had 4 days of dry weather so the soil can absorb some rain. And, with the cold temperatures in the mountains, snowmelt will be slim to non existent through the period. So, no flood highlights at this time. Most of the area will have a brief break on Wednesday with transitory ridging over the area, although another approaching wave will bring some additional showers to the west at this time. This wave and low will cross the area on Thursday. Models have trended somewhat further north with it this morning. This would keep the heaviest rain over Montana but models have not been consistent with it so uncertainty this higher. Another wave may approach for Friday or Saturday but there is more spread on timing with this. The area will remain in zonal to a weak trough though the period, so the trend of below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation should continue at least to the start of the upcoming holiday weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 938 PM MDT Sun May 19 2024 VFR conditions will light winds and some scattered mid to upper level clouds throughout the CWA. Clouds will increase in coverage with mid level ceilings around 6-8kft by around 15Z. Increasing rain shower activity after this point reaching CPR around 16Z, RKS by 17Z, and WRL by 20Z. Most locations will see lower ceilings above VFR thresholds as shower activity decreases after 00Z. WRL and CPR will see lingering shower activity for point further north and east with likely MVFR ceilings as suggested by LAMP/BUFKIT data. Quiet overnight before an active Monday arises by mid morning Monday. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT Tuesday for WYZ002-008-009-015. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wittmann AVIATION...Lowe