769
FXUS65 KRIW 300658
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
1258 AM MDT Thu May 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The end of the week looks dry and a bit cooler in the wake of
  Wednesday`s system. Then, slight chances for thunderstorms
  Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. None of these days looks like a
  significant convective day, though.

- A warmup will occur this weekend and it will be warm to hot
  across the area into next week any beyond. This will lead to
  rapid mountain snowmelt, especially next week, so river
  flooding will be a concern.

- Long-range model guidance continues to indicate a hot and dry
  period beginning late next week as a dominant ridge sets up
  over the western US. It wouldn`t be surprising if several
  lower elevations hit 90 degrees F.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1257 AM MDT Thu May 30 2024

In the wake of Wednesday`s system it will be cooler today and
tomorrow, but still mild with highs in the 60s and 70s. Another
slight chance (20-30%) of rain showers/thunderstorms this weekend
into Monday as another quick moving shortwave and an upper-low will
slide through the Cowboy State. Minor river flooding is possible (30-
40%) as we head into next week, with warming temperatures on the way.

The weather systems this weekend into next week will all be quick
moving and weak, so not expecting big precip makers or highly
impactful weather into next week. It will be fairly breezy for most
locations each afternoon well into next week before a highly
amplified ridge builds across the western US. The breezy conditions,
combined with low RH will lead to elevated fire weather conditions
late this week through this weekend, although greenup will limit
this threat. Timing of the development of an amplified ridge that
model guidance was indicating for next week remains uncertain as
model guidance is struggling to come into agreement, but it will be
sometime next week. Regardless of the active pattern temperatures
will not drop much this weekend into next week as each
trough/shortwave should stay on the northern edge of the area as
they pass through the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1000 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period as showers
end across the area. Models continue to hint at MVFR ceilings
near KCPR between 09Z and 11Z as a result of moist, weak
northerly surface flow. Have left VFR conditions for now, but
there is a 30% chance of MVFR cigs. These cigs will scatter out
between 13Z and 16Z. Showers will remain possible over Johnson
County through 09Z. Winds will decrease across the area through
this time as well. By late morning to early afternoon, winds
become predominantly westerly, and will increase through the
afternoon with gusts of 25 to 30 kt.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rowe
AVIATION...LaVoie