Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
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128 FXUS65 KRIW 310711 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 111 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A bit warmer today (close to normal) and dry. Then, slight chances for thunderstorms Saturday through Tuesday. The best chance for rain and thunderstorms looks like Monday into Tuesday as a stronger trough moves through. - A warmup will occur this weekend and it will be warm to hot across the area into next week and beyond. This will lead to plentiful mountain snowmelt, especially next week, so river flooding will be a concern. - Long-range model guidance continues to indicate a hot and dry period beginning late next week as a dominant ridge sets up over the western US. It wouldn`t be surprising if a couple of lower elevations hit 90 degrees F Thursday or Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 109 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024 Warms a bit today (close to normal temperatures), but still mild with highs in the 60s and 70s. Another chance (20-40%) of rain showers/thunderstorms this weekend through Tuesday as another quick moving shortwave and an upper-low/trough will slide through the Region. Minor river flooding is possible (30-40%) as we head into next week, with warming temperatures on the way. The weather systems this weekend into next week will all be quick moving, so not expecting big precip makers or highly impactful weather into next week. Although, model guidance is showing the second system on Monday/Tuesday with a little more oomph as it moves across the region. Precip chances did increase across northern and western portions of the area in response to this. It will be fairly breezy for most locations each afternoon well into next week before a highly amplified ridge builds across the western US. The breezy conditions, combined with low RH will lead to elevated fire weather conditions late this week through this weekend, although greenup will limit this threat. Timing of the development of an amplified ridge that model guidance was indicating for next week remains uncertain as model guidance continues to struggle to come into agreement, but it will be sometime next week. When the ridge breaks down is also up in the air and suspect this won`t be clear until next week once it develops. Regardless of the active pattern temperatures will not drop much this weekend into next week as each trough/shortwave should stay on the northern edge of the area as they pass through the region. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 921 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024 VFR conditions prevail at all terminals throughout the TAF period. Winds will gradually decrease overnight with many terminals seeing light and variable winds into Friday morning. Skies clear out overnight with a lingering SCT/BKN080-100 cloud deck at KCOD and KWRL through the night. SKC prevail across all terminals by Friday morning and remain into the end of the period. West- northwest winds develop by early Friday afternoon with periodic gusts of 20 to 25 knots. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Rowe AVIATION...Dziewaltowski