849
FXUS61 KRLX 240550
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
150 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Quasi stationary front lifts north of the area today. Shortwave
grazes our area from the south late today/early Saturday. Another
round of showers/t-storms likely Sunday. Remaining unsettled Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 400 PM Thursday...

Updated pops and sky cover to better reflect current satellite
and radar trends. Otherwise, no changes were necessary.

As of 145 PM Thursday...

The morning shower and storm activity over KY completely fizzled
in terms of strength as it moved into WV, and is now just an
area of showers with a few thunderstorms near the RNK border.
POPs were further reduced across the area this afternoon and
evening, but there is still some expectation that another round
of showers or storms could form over KY with destabilization in
the clearing air to the west of Charleston. That said, absent
some significant warm-up and destabilization, which we aren`t
seeing right now in that area, the potential for strong to
severe storms appears to be significantly lower than originally
expected today.

Heading into tonight, guidance was hitting hard on potential for
fog and/or low stratus, so that was enhanced with this forecast,
though denser fog was kept limited to the valleys. Some showers
and storms may develop tomorrow afternoon, but they are mostly
limited to areas along and south of I-64, and up the spine of
the higher terrain.

Highs today under the cloud cover will generally be low to
mid-70s, but any areas that can get a bit more sun could sneak a
bit higher. With more sunshine expected tomorrow, most lower
elevations will see highs between 80 degrees and the mid-80s,
with mountains from the upper 60s to mid-70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1214 PM Thursday...

The unsettled weather pattern will continue into the holiday weekend
with continued chances for showers and thunderstorms. A mid-level
shortwave trough will be exiting southern portions of WV and
southwest VA Saturday morning, and this can create showers and
isolated t-storms over these areas through about midday. Any
thunderstorms Saturday morning will likely be non-severe. A period
of dry weather is anticipated Saturday afternoon, but a few isolated
pop-up storms cannot be ruled out. Again, severe weather is not
anticipated Saturday due to a lack of 0-6 km shear (only expected to
be 15-25 kts). Any downpours that repeatedly move over the same
areas may lead to localized flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1214 PM Thursday...

The severe weather potential may be a bit higher on Sunday, but
models are still not in very good agreement with the overall setup.
It appears that a mid-level shortwave will propagate along a slow-
moving frontal boundary across central West Virginia and southeast
Ohio by Sunday afternoon, creating afternoon and evening
thunderstorm chances. Models are in pretty good agreement that the
best severe weather parameters will be west of our County Warning
Area, across central and western Kentucky. Some models bring
favorable severe weather parameters into portions of northeast
Kentucky, southern Ohio and western West Virginia Sunday afternoon
and evening. SPC currently has far western portions of our area in a
15% risk of severe weather for Day 4, which corresponds to a Slight
Risk. Sunday`s environment will be very saturated with models
showing PWAT values anywhere from 1.5-1.8 inches across the region.
Because of this, we are concerned about potential for flooding,
especially given the saturated ground from our unsettled pattern.

A large 500-mb trough with its associated surface low pressure and
cold front will track eastward across the Great Lakes Monday. This
will provide another push for showers and thunderstorms across the
region. Again, given the recent unsettled pattern, we will remain on
alert for potential flooding issues. Mid-level drier air will filter
back into the region from the west behind the cold front late Monday
afternoon. Given this information, downpours probably won`t be as
potent behind the cold front.

Lingering showers will remain possible Tuesday with energy still
spinning around the upper-level trough. It appears that we will
finally see a respite from the wet and unsettled weather by the
middle of next week with at least a couple of days of drier weather
for most.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 146 AM Friday...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to develop
along a quasi stationary frontal boundary oriented west to east
across central CWA. This activity will affect CRW, HTS and BKW
with MVFR/IFR conditions early during the TAF period, and then
move northeast to affect CKB and EKN through 12Z. Low stratus
may develop behind these showers to keep MVFR ceilings through
the morning hours.

After 12Z, expect low stratus to dissipate as drier airmass
filters in aloft allowing for plenty of sunshine. However, the
atmosphere will remain unsettled allowing convection to develop
during the afternoon and evening hours. Brief MVFR/IFR
conditions can be expected under heavier afternoon showers or
storms.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium on stratus tonight.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Thunderstorms may miss any terminal
directly by still be in the vicinity.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 05/24/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    M    L    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    L    L    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    M    L    H    L    M    M    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    M    H    M    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible at times in showers and storms through Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/JMC
NEAR TERM...FK/SL
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...ARJ