762
FXUS61 KRLX 211049
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
649 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure provides unseasonably warm and mostly dry weather
today. A cold front brings showers and thunderstorms Wednesday
afternoon and Thursday. Rain chances through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 555 AM Tuesday...

No changes needed to the forecast as it remains on track.
Scattered clouds are drifting across the area preventing fog
from being too dense along the river valleys. GOES-16 Microphysics
shows that it is present though, especially in the valleys
across SE Pocahontas County and the coalfields.

As of 300 AM Tuesday...

Another morning of ridge/valley split temperatures and some
patchy river valley fog as strong high pressure overhead has
most locations decoupled. Surface obs have been showing
temperatures running cooler every hour than blended guidance has
forecasted. That said, went about 3-5 degrees cooler on low
temperatures this morning than blended guidance.

Strong ridge aloft at 500MB and bubble of surface high pressure
to our east allowing for another day of unseasonably warmer
temperatures across the area. Under southwesterly flow, upper
80s will be common across the lowlands, while the mountains will
be in the 70s to mid 80s. The typical heat sink/sheltered
valley locations across the lowlands could see 90 degrees today.

While most locations will stay dry today, short-range
convective allowing models show a shortwave disturbance that
will move through the ridge pattern this afternoon. That said,
chances remain for thundershowers across the northern mountains
of WV and our SW VA counties much like yesterday. Went with a
blend of short blend guidance as the RAP13 was too aggressive
this run, even though it nailed yesterday`s convection.

Remaining dry into tonight even as high pressure shifts
eastward, yielding to an approaching system from the west.
Temperatures won`t be as cool with southerly winds remaining
light overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 205 AM Tuesday...

A southerly wind in advance of an approaching system will
increase moisture across the area Wednesday into Wednesday
night. This will allow for an increasing chance for showers and
thunderstorms. Afternoon temperatures will be well above normal
for this time of year, with some lowland locations in the upper
80s. Meso NAM soundings showing 1600 to 1900 effective layer
CAPE for Wednesday afternoon in southeast Ohio, northeast
Kentucky, and western West Virginia. This combined with some mid
level dry air could produce damaging wind gusts in stronger
thunderstorms and possibly some large hail.

A cold front will then push through the area on Thursday,
providing additional showers and thunderstorms along with more
seasonable temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 205 AM Tuesday...

A cold front will stall just south of the area on Friday. An
upper level short wave will then interact with the front and
cause a surface wave to move along the front Friday afternoon
into Friday night. Models continue to struggle with the
strength of the short wave, and hence how far north the moisture
gets and how strong the dynamics are with this system.

Models continue to struggle for the rest of the forecast with
the timing and strength of additional short waves and possible
fronts. This leads to a lower confidence in the forecast,
although there should be several rounds of precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 640 AM Tuesday...

Any lingering fog should dissipate by ~13Z, then giving way to
VFR for the rest of the day.

A shortwave will move over the area by ~18Z today allowing for
scattered CU fields across the area. That said, chances for
thundershowers will also remain this afternoon, mostly across
the mountains of SW VA, northern WV and maybe the Tri-State Area.
Terminal sites look to dodge the activity as it will be very
isolated, though a few short-range models suggest HTS and BKW
may see some rainfall today.

Winds are currently calm across the lowlands; light and
variable across higher elevations. Winds will pick up out of
the SW by ~15Z and will remain light through the period before
shifting out of the south after ~00Z this evening.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and coverage of showers and
thunderstorms today may vary from the forecast.



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               TUE 05/21/24
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR conditions possible with showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday afternoon into Thursday with a cold front. IFR
possible in showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon into
Friday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/LTC
NEAR TERM...LTC
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...LTC