257
FXUS61 KRLX 241736
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
136 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms through the
Memorial Day holiday weekend. Some storms could be capable of
damaging wind gusts, hail, and locally heavy downpours.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 135 PM Friday...

A beautiful afternoon is underway for much of the forecast area to
kick start the Memorial Day weekend. This is with the help of
mid-level ridging aloft nudging shortwave energy eastward for
areas east of the mountains. However, radar trends at the time
of writing still have some pop up activity in our northeast
zones of Randolph and Pocahontas Counties sprouting along a
stationary front draped along our northern periphery. Outside of
a quick lightning burst in isolated convection, severe weather
is not anticipated today for our forecast area.

Radar trends quickly quiet down after sunset, with afternoon
cumulus fields also fading away. In a national perspective,
there is a low pressure system off to our west that will travel
across the country over the next several days, yielding
increasing moisture along onshore flow as our forecast area sits
within the warm-sector of this approaching disturbance.
Radiational cooling, coupled with light low level flow, may
promote areas of fog Saturday morning as a result of increased
moisture in the area.

After daybreak, fog erosion will branch out into another
afternoon cumulus field for Saturday. Temperatures warm up a few
more degrees into the mid-80s across the lowlands and the 70s
for the higher terrain, and growing muggier with the plethora of
moisture overhead. Aforementioned frontal boundary lazily
hanging over the area will once again promote isolated showers
and storms along the higher terrain Saturday afternoon.

By this point in the period, we`ll also have our eyes on a line
of convection pressing through the Ohio Valley that could
encroach on the western flank of the area late in the afternoon
and evening. A slightly better emphasis on strong to severe
thunderstorms will be placed on Saturday, which could be
accompanied by damaging wind gusts, hail, and/or locally heavy
downpours. This could yield localized flash flooding concerns,
especially in the event of training convection.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 335 AM Friday...

Key Points:
* Unsettled, with localized flooding possible this weekend.
* Isolated severe storms possible Saturday, better chance on Sunday.
* Strong wind gusts and large hail are the main concerns.

Unsettled weather continues into the weekend as a shortwave moves by
to the south on Saturday. Enough moisture and instability should be
present for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to
develop during the day. Strong instability could support isolated
severe storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts or large
hail, despite modest shear. With precipitable water amounts ranging
from 1 to 1.5 inches, localized flooding could also be a concern if
multiple downpours were to impact the same area.

A low spinning over Manitoba and Western Ontario directs a cold
front towards the area from the west. This front is expected to
proceed into the CWA Saturday night, before being lifted back out of
the area as a new low crosses the central plains and tracks into the
Great Lakes region Sunday into Sunday night. Forecast soundings
continue to indicate potential for severe weather on Sunday
when moderate to strong instability is expected to develop in
conjunction with moderate shear, steep lapse rates, and DCAPE
exceeding 1000 J/kg. The SPC severe weather outlook for day 3
now highlights much of the CWA within a marginal risk of severe
weather. Excessive rainfall also remains a concern as heavy
downpours could occur in storms. Flooding would be most likely
in poor drainage areas or locations where the ground is already
saturated from previous rainfall.

Temperatures are expected to be above normal throughout the
weekend, with highs expected to be in the 80s in the lowlands
and 70s to mid 80s along the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 335 AM Friday...

A cold front sweeps across the area on Monday as the parent low
lifts out of the Great Lakes and moves northeast into Canada.
Showers and thunderstorms should accompany the frontal passage, then
both precipitation coverage and intensity are expected to diminish
as drier air seeps in behind the front during the latter half of the
day. That being said, showers and storms remain possible at times
through the middle of the week as several shortwaves pivot through
an upper level trough. Upper troughing eventually slides east and is
supplanted by an upper ridge which should conduct drier conditions
back into the area for the end of the work week.

Temperatures are expected to be warmer than normal on Monday,
then return to near to below normal for the rest of the long
term forecast period following the frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 135 PM Friday...

Low hanging cumulus field this afternoon of around 25-50 kft AGL
remains present around the area, with pop up showers sprouting
intermittently across north-central and northeast West Virginia.
This is in response to a stationary frontal boundary draped over
the area, promoting clouds and light and variable flow, with
just enough moisture to create occasional precipitation. Only
site carrying VCTS this afternoon will be KEKN, where radar
trends depict the closest airfield to activity at the time of
writing.

Ceilings will gradually rise through the afternoon and evening
as cumulus fades, returning all sites to VFR conditions.
However, with surface high pressure nearby tonight, low level
flow will generally be calm enough to encourage fog production
across the higher terrain and the WV foothills, especially in
areas that receive rain today. Currently only have confidence
that KEKN and KCKB could see fog Saturday morning, but fog could
ooze as far west as KCRW before lifting after sunrise.

Saturday will feature generally quiet conditions to begin the
day, but diurnally driven showers and storms will return to the
forecast for the afternoon. Winds remain light and variable
through the period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High, depending on radar trends.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Thunderstorms may miss any terminal
directly, but still be in the vicinity.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible at times in showers and storms through Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/JLB
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...MEK