706
FXUS61 KRLX 291803
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
203 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper disturbance brings showers and storms today. High pressure
Thursday through Saturday. Disturbances bring showers and storms
late Saturday night into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 115 PM Wednesday...

A potent shortwave trough swinging along the base of an upper-
level low is tracking through the middle Ohio Valley and central
Appalachians. This is producing widely scattered showers across
the area, which will continue through early this evening.
Freezing levels are only around 7,000 ft AGL this afternoon, so
some heavier showers could produce some small hail. Severe
weather is not expected today, but there is a marginal risk of
excessive rainfall across the north. Flash flood guidance is a
little lower across northern WV (3hr FFG 1.25-1.5") where heavy
rainfall previously fell over the Memorial Day weekend.

Tonight will be chillier than recent nights with lows expected
to be in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Low stratus is expected to
develop over the mountains, and dense fog may also develop
overnight in spots where rain has fallen today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Wednesday...

Upper level troughing over the east coast with high pressure at the
surface will yield quiet conditions heading into the weekend. Overnight
lows will generally be in the mid 40s to lower 50s across the
lower elevations with mid 30s to mid 40s across the higher
elevations. With dry low levels with dew points in the low 30s
in the mountains, better protected mountain valleys could see
some frost heading into Friday morning with cold air drainage.
Otherwise minimal weather concerns are expected. Ridging
translating east into the Middle Ohio Valley during the day
Friday will signal a return to warmer and more humid conditions
for the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Wednesday...

Warm moist advection begins in earnest during the day Saturday as
southwesterly flow increases. Precipitable water values increase to
around 1.5 inches by Saturday night. A relatively weak wave emerging
from the southern Rockies Thursday night arriving in the Middle Ohio
Valley Saturday night into Sunday should provide upper level forcing
for ascent and associated increasing H850 winds down low will
provide some level of mass convergence at the nose of a LLJ. Mid-
level lapse rates look marginal at best to support much conditional
instability, but may see some build with daytime heating Sunday
yielding some efficient rain makers.

Forcing departs by Monday leaving the region in a weak flow regime
as precipitable water values briefly decrease under weak
northwesterly flow. Couldn`t rule out some diurnally favored showers
and thunderstorms Monday afternoon, but coverage will likely be
fairly sparse Monday.

Moisture increases again amid continuing weak flow Tuesday into
Wednesday. This yielding better chances of mainly diurnally driven
convection, although a weak trough approaching Tuesday evening may
help to focus convection.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 115 PM Wednesday...

Flight conditions will be a mixed bag of VFR and MVFR, and
potentially a few brief instances of IFR through the rest of
today. Widely scattered showers are moving through the region,
and they are expected to dissipate by this evening. Some of the
heavier showers can briefly reduce visibility to IFR. In
addition, west to northwest winds will be gusty through the
rest of the day, gusting up to 20 kts at times at some of the
terminals.

Low stratus is expected to develop over the mountains overnight,
and any location that sees rain today can also develop dense
fog overnight. However, we have low confidence in this because
the formation of fog will depend on where showers track later
this afternoon.

Low stratus in the mountains should gradually improve to VFR by
mid-morning Thursday. Across the lowlands, conditions will be
largely VFR Thursday.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium through this evening. Low confidence
overnight.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers/storms today may vary
from the forecast. Timing and extent of fog and low stratus
tonight may also vary.





EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR possible in early morning fog on Friday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JMC