982
FXUS61 KRLX 280624
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
224 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Tuesday and Wednesday will bring some additional shower and
thunderstorm activity, before drying out Thursday into the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 220 AM Tuesday...

A shortwave is projected to glide past the area, bringing
potential for showers and a few storms across the northern half
of the CWA during the morning. While the wave departs to the
northeast this afternoon, enough instability and shear may be
present to support some additional convection during the
afternoon and evening. A lull in activity should occur after
sundown, then the next shortwave trough approaches from the
northwest and reintroduces precipitation chances overnight.

High temperatures should be a few degrees cooler than the past
couple of days, topping out in the 70s for the lowlands and 60s
to low 70s along the mountains. Tonight will be seasonable, with
lows in the low to mid 50s in the lowlands and upper 40s to low
50s along the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Monday...

Key Points:
* Showers and storms expected at times through Wednesday, with
  dry conditions thereafter.
* Cool temperatures Wednesday and Thursday.

The chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue through
Wednesday as weak upper waves periodically pivot through a broad
scale upper trough across the eastern CONUS. Shower/storm
potential (SCT to Numerous) will peak during Wednesday
afternoon/evening courtesy of diurnal heating, but ISOL
activity Tuesday night into Wednesday morning remains possible
given some upper forcing across the region. The chance for rain
will quickly taper Wednesday night as drier air and high
pressure begin to build into the region, with dry conditions
then persisting through the remainder of the period. While a few
strong storms are possible on Wednesday, the severe threat in
general remains low.

High temperatures on Wednesday/Thursday will be seasonably
chilly - upper 60s to low 70s across the lowlands, with mid 50s
to mid 60s in the mountains. A sun/cloud mix on Wednesday will
give way to mostly sunny skies on Thursday. It will be chilly at
night, particularly Thursday night, with the potential for frost
Friday morning in the typical mountain valley cold spots.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...

Key Points:
* High pressure provides dry weather on Friday into the first
  half of the weekend.
* Isolated showers/storms return on Sunday into Monday.
* Gradual warming trend late week into early next week.

Surface high pressure remains in control on Friday as it begins to
gradually traverse the region from northwest to southeast into the
start of the weekend. This results in a beautiful end to the work
week amid mostly sunny skies and seasonably cool temperatures -
highs in the low/mid 70s across the lowlands. After a dry and
cool Friday night, temperatures warm ~ 5-10 degrees on Saturday
courtesy of return flow. The chance for isolated showers/storms
returns on Sunday into Monday as moisture advection continues
with southwest low/mid level mean layer flow. In the absence of
any large scale forcing mechanism, activity at this point
generally looks to be diurnally driven, with PoPs capped at
30-40% across the region for the time being. High temperatures
are progged to return to the mid 80s by Monday for the lowlands.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 210 AM Tuesday...

While VFR should prevail for much of the area overnight, brief
periods of MVFR could occur courtesy of lower clouds present
along the mountains. Patchy valley fog will also be possible in
a few locations before sunrise.

A passing disturbance is expected to bring cloud cover and some
showers after 12Z, then additional isolated to scattered
showers and storms could flare up during the afternoon. Most
activity is expected to occur to the north near PKB, CKB, and
EKN. While VFR is generally expected during the day, occasional
restrictions could be possible in storms. A lull in activity
should occur in the evening before another wave brings
increasing cloud cover and chances of more precipitation near
the end, or beyond, the valid TAF period.

Light flow is expected to increase and become westerly during
the day, with 15-25kt gusts possible through the afternoon.
Winds should relax again beyond 00Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Patchy fog that could affect a few
terminals, such as CRW and EKN. Timing/extent of convection
during the day may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             TUE 05/28/24
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief IFR possible in showers and storms on Wednesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JLB
NEAR TERM...JLB
SHORT TERM...GW
LONG TERM...GW
AVIATION...JLB