625
FXUS61 KRLX 020310
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1110 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain gradually returns to the region overnight into Sunday as a
weak disturbance crosses. Brief dry spell for most on Monday as
temperatures warm, with unsettled weather returning by mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1050 PM Saturday...

Made minor updates to PoPs through early tonight as light rain
showers have moved in earlier than originally progged across
western portions of the CWA. Otherwise, made slight updates to
overnight temperatures, with the rest of the forecast remaining
on track.

As of 630 PM Saturday...

The forecast remains on track, with no updates necessary at this
time.

As of 1210 PM Saturday...

Upper level ridging and associated surface high pressure continues
to shift east through the remainder of the day today into this
evening allowing a plume of Gulf enhanced moisture to shift east
into our forecast area this evening into Sunday.

Through the evening and first half of the overnight any radar
returns will probably struggle to translate to accumulating rainfall
at the surface with initially dry low levels and light precipitation
rates. Instability will begin to build toward daybreak and peak late
Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon with increasing chances for
accumulating rain, and perhaps some pockets of heavier rain by late
in the morning Sunday given precipitable water values near 1.5
inches, deep but skinny instability profiles, and deep warm cloud
depths. Given recent dry conditions and the fully greened state of
vegetation, not expecting much in the way of water issues unless a
heavier downpour persists over a more built up area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 PM Saturday...

Precipitation tapers off in the usual west to east fashion Sunday
night. For Monday, an azores high pressure center encroaches on the
Eastern Seaboard as another weaker center builds in from the north
forcing a backdoor cold front through the area.

As a result, the area remains mostly dry on Monday with high
pressure around, outside of the chance for some diurnal
shower/storm activity across the mountains due to the
aforementioned cold front being nearby. This activity will
quickly wane after peak daytime heating is lost around sunset.

A warming trend will also start with afternoon temperatures
shooting into the 80s across the lowlands; 60s to upper 70s in
the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Saturday...

Warming trend continues Tuesday with high pressure around.
Temperatures will be above normal, but stereotypical for a
sultry summer day; upper 80s to around 90 across the usual warm
spots in the lowlands.

There remains a chance for some afternoon showers or
thunderstorms due to a shortwave that will move through the
ridge pattern. A few long-range models suggest it will be dry
Tuesday morning, but the ridge looks `dirty` through the entire
day, and with the forecasted hot temperatures opted to keep
slight chance to chance PoPs in the forecast. This could change
with future forecast packages though.

Looking out further, seeing a cold front that will pass through
Wednesday into Thursday. Subsequently, temperatures will cool
off a few degrees, but mid 80s could still be common across the
lowlands. A broad upper-level low then looks to drop down out
of the Great Lakes on Friday going into the weekend. Kept
chance PoPs around as it could be unsettled for this period.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 800 PM Saturday...

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the overnight hours
as generally virga or light precipitation begins to spread over
the region tonight, with perhaps very brief MVFR VSBY
restrictions across the far west at HTS with an isolated
moderate shower here/there. Cloud bases will progressively lower
into MVFR Sunday morning into the afternoon, mainly across
central/northern terminals, with the chance for ISOL/SCT showers
at times throughout the day. Isolated thunderstorms are also
possible in the afternoon/evening across the south, with the
potential to affect BKW and perhaps CRW or HTS. Confidence in
prevailing VSBY restrictions is low at this point, so have just
coded 6SM at some terminals for the time being. Brief MVFR is
possible within heavier showers on Sunday, while brief IFR
within any thunderstorms.

Light southwest to southeast surface flow is expected throughout
this TAF period. Brief gusty conditions to 20 kts cannot be
ruled out however, particularly tonight into Sunday morning as
showers encroach from the west on top of an initially rather
dry lower atmosphere.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief MVFR VSBY restrictions are possible
late tonight and Sunday within heavier showers, while brief IFR
VSBY restrictions are possible within any thunderstorms.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             SUN 06/02/24
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
Brief IFR conditions are possible in showers and thunderstorms
Sunday evening, then again at times Wednesday into Thursday.
IFR also possible in post-rain stratus, and perhaps fog, late
Sunday night and early Monday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/GW/LTC
NEAR TERM...JP/GW
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...GW