516
FXUS61 KRNK 300643
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
243 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front pushes to the coast tonight. Dry and cooler high
pressure will build in for Thursday and Friday with below
normal temperatures. The next chance of rain will be late this
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Dry and mostly sunny conditions today. Temperatures below
normal.

Troughing over the east remains in place today with northwest
flow persisting. 850mb jet modeled around 30 to 35kts and this
will be enough to remain well-mixed overnight, especially over
the ridges. Highest elevations still gusting close to 20mph.
Being well- mixed and coupled with large dew point depressions,
fog development seems rather unlikely through this morning.

Trough amplifies today and shifts east into the Atlantic late
tonight. Will have strong Canadian high pressure build in behind
the trough bringing clear and calm skies tonight. Chilly
temperatures are expected overnight and will see widespread mid
to low 40s. Some sheltered elevated valleys may even reach the
upper 30s. Daytime highs in the upper 60s to 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 240 PM EST Wed May 29 2024

Key Message:

- Generally quiet weather and below normal temperatures expected
  through the end of the week.

The big story for the end of the week will be below normal
temperatures for early June. An upper-level trough should gradually
move eastward across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. through the
end of the week. As this occurs, a surface high will be pushed
across the region. With a northerly flow through the boundary layer,
continued low-level cold air advection will continue through the end
of the week, as weak perturbations continue rounding the base of the
upper trough. This, combined with a continued dry airmass, will
allow below normal temperatures to be seen.

Deterministic guidance for this period remains on the lower end of
the statistical guidance spectrum during this period, with most
values appearing to hover between the 10th and 25th percentile. This
is true especially for overnight lows. Based on everything I`m
seeing, I plan on going below the guidance mean for temperatures
this afternoon. In other words, we`re already doing this in the
forecast and I see no reason to buck the trend. It looks like the
coldest night will be Thursday night/Friday morning.

The upper trough axis should shift offshore Friday night, allowing
shortwave ridging to build into the region from the west. While we
still might see a weak north to northeast low-level flow heading
into the weekend, temperatures will begin to moderate. By the time
Saturday rolls around, winds should become southerly as the surface
high shifts east of our area. With low-level moisture increasing,
expect more cloud cover to join the slowly warming temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM EST Wed May 29 2024

Key Messages:

- Precipitation probabilities return to the forecast area.

- Temperatures return to near normal levels for early June.

An atmospheric disturbance is forecast to move from the Upper
Midwest into the Great Lakes Sunday. There should be some flattening
of the upper-level flow in response, with the boundary layer flow
becoming southwesterly - or maybe west-southwesterly - and
precipitable water levels increasing to near normal for this time of
year (which is somewhere around an inch). The added moisture,
combined with slightly better forcing, should allow cloud cover, as
well as shower probabilities, to return to our area at some point
Sunday. Right now, I`ve got a fairly low confidence in the timing of
any precipitation Sunday. But it looks like areas east of the Blue
Ridge will have greater odds in the afternoon, with no one
particular time of day favored for showers west of the Blue Ridge.

Beyond Sunday, about the best I can say is that it looks like
unsettled weather conditions could continue. Overall, though, I
have fairly low confidence in the overall evolutionary details
of the forecast. The upper-level flow should more-or-less remain
zonal through early next week. This will allow quick-moving
shortwave troughs in the northern stream to dart across (or at
least very close) to the region. Boundary layer moisture should
remain ample for convection through Day 7, with precipitable
water values at or above normal for early June. In fact, there
is some indication in ensemble guidance of values approaching 2
standard deviations above normal (98th percentile). We`ll see
what happens, though. Regardless of the details, it looks like
scattered convection will be seen through the middle of next
week.

Temperature-wise, it looks like there will be gradual warmup through
the long term portion of the forecast. I`m pretty confident that
temperatures will go above seasonal levels, but I`m not sure to what
extent. At this stage, I`ll stick pretty close to the national
blend, which has highs by Wednesday around 80 in the mountains and
in the upper 80s across the Piedmont/Southside Virginia.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 220 AM EDT Thursday...

MVFR across the mountains and VFR east of the mountains through
this morning. Upslope clouds will continue to bring BKN 1kft to
3kft cigs through daybreak. Should see upslope clouds dissipate
late morning and all terminals are expected to remain VFR
through the 24 hour TAF period.

Removed any mention of fog in the TAFs as conditions still
remain well mixed. Confidence is very low that there will be
any fog this morning.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR much of the week, aside from potential fog at LWB/BCB early
in the mornings. Storms may bring sub-VFR Sunday afternoon
through Monday but low confidence.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG/WP
SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...BMG