447
FXUS61 KRNK 271825
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
225 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level system in advance of a strong cold front will
bring morning thunderstorms with strong winds today, with
storms re-developing across the Virginia and North Carolina
Piedmont regions this afternoon. Once the cold front passes
Monday evening, drier and and slightly cooler temperatures are
expected for much of the coming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1. A few storms may redevelop in the Piedmont this afternoon.

2. Chance for mountain showers Tuesday, but much quieter
overall.

Radar is entirely quiet around southwest VA currently. Skies
have been clearing steadily since showers ended this morning.
This will help destabilize the atmosphere a bit more, but after
this morning`s activity, available energy in the atmosphere is
fairly worked over.

High-res guidance indicates a high probability that showers and
storms will redevelop later this afternoon, mostly east of the
Blue Ridge. A few storms could be severe, targeted in the
Piedmont and further east of our area into central and eastern
VA. Threats include damaging winds, large hail, the potential
for isolated tornadoes.

After this evening we will be clear of a cold front. With some
pressure rises ahead of a surface dome of high pressure over the
Great Lakes, we will see some light gusts up to 25 MPH across
the CWA tonight. Winds will calm tomorrow, but northwest flow
accompanied by a mid-level trough could cause scattered mountain
showers Tuesday. Temperatures will be cooler than recent,
dropping into the 50s overnight tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1. A few upslope showers and isolated storms possible
Wednesday afternoon.

Little change was made to the mid-range forecast as there is
high confidence in the middle of the week will be calm with a
cooling trend.

From the previous discussion...

The medium range models are in good agreement keeping the
eastern U.S. under the influence of an upper level trof that is
reinforced on Wednesday by an upper level system pushing south
of the western Great Lakes.

The 27/00Z SREF does show modest probabilities of SBCAPES
exceeding 500 j/kg in central WV, as an upper level cool pool
moves over the area, so an isolated storm cannot be ruled out on
Tuesday in southeast WV. Widely scattered showers and perhaps
an isolated storm is also possible Wednesday afternoon mainly in
southeast WV, but most areas will remain dry with temperatures
close to normal on Wednesday with temperatures expected to be a
few degrees cooler on Wednesday.

Generally followed the NBM guidance for temperatures during this
period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1). Generally benign weather for the later half of the week into the
weekend.

2). Unseasonably cool through much of the period.

3). Little to no rainfall for the Piedmont through the period.
Light showers possible across the western mountains.

The last week of May right into the first week of June will be
dominated by cyclonic northwest flow around a deep upper low
anchored over the eastern Great Lakes. This low pressure area will
only very slowly drift east toward NY/New England through the week
into the weekend, still influencing the weather across the eastern
U.S. over the weekend.

The Thu-Sat time period will be largely dry. There is little if
any support for precipitation during this time frame. A surface
high takes over by late Thursday in the Mid-Atlantic, and going
into the weekend, an upper ridge begins to tighten and intensify
over the area. This will allow a short wave to traverse the
Midwest/OH/TN valley reaching our area by the weekend. However,
there is considerable disagreement among the various models as
to when and how this system will impact the region. Have kept
PoPs under 25% for the most part through the weekend.

850mb temperatures will drop from the early double-digit readings in
the low to mid teens deg. C to around +5C to +8C through much of the
later half of the week. Temperatures will be on the cool side for
late May/early June, only reaching the 60s across the higher terrain
west of the Blue Ridge until the weekend, when lower to mid 70s will
return. These readings are 5-10 degrees below normal. Nights will be
chilly with lows in the 40s west and 50s east. A few spots such as
Burkes Garden and Quinwood could see the upper 30s Friday morning
behind a secondary surge of cold air rotating around the upper low.

/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/
- Moderate to High Confidence in Temperatures,
- Low to Moderate Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities,
- Moderate Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed,
- Low Confidence in Thunderstorm Potential.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 220 PM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions almost across the board this afternoon, though
there are some gusts in the 20-30 kt range. Winds are almost due
west, and expect those gusts to continue until close to daybreak
on Tuesday.

There may be scattered showers and storms later this afternoon,
but they will quickly move east towards central VA. Vsby in
these storms could be temporarily reduced due to higher rainfall
rates. After those storms move out by this evening, cigs will
rise and skies will begin to clear up. Apart from patchy valley
fog for a couple hours early tomorrow morning, VFR conditions
will abound Tuesday morning.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Drier weather arrives Tuesday behind the front with VFR
conditions after morning fog erodes. There is a low chance for
showers and thunderstorms will be possible across WV Tuesday and
Wednesday, otherwise VFR. VFR everywhere Thursday.

Patchy fog with periods of MVFR/LIFR will be possible in the
mornings near mountain and river valleys.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PH
NEAR TERM...VFJ
SHORT TERM...PH/VFJ
LONG TERM...RAB/VFJ
AVIATION...PH/VFJ