955
FXUS61 KRNK 281829
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
229 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of upper disturbances will pass across today into
Wednesday that could allow for isolated shower and thunderstorms
in parts of the far north and west. Otherwise mainly dry and
less humid weather is expected to persist through the work week.
The next main chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms
looks to be over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1045 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

 - Little change to probability of thunderstorms in the far
western mountains.

The cold front has pushed into southeast Virginia this morning.
Surface points in the mountains have lowered in the 50s.
Stratocumulus was developing west of the Blue Ridge.

Based on the SPC-HRRR and forecast of when the cap will break,
do not expect to see precipitation develop until after 1PM/17Z.

No changes made to high temperatures at this time.






Previous discussion:
As of 230 AM EDT Tuesday...

Early this morning there is a cluster of showers pushing into
the far SWERN CWA perhaps associated with a weak low level wave.
This should diminish here in the next few hours or so. Expect
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies for the vast majority of the
area today as we mainly stay in a drier post frontal airmass
though still east of the broad upper trough axis. A weak
amplification and perturbation traversing the flow may allow for
isolated convection in the far northern mountains for the
afternoon. Will need to monitor how some of the CAM guidance
trends as the Nam nest looks to be an outlier with an area of
perhaps more organized convection propagating into more of the
mountains this evening, though quickly diminishing in
coverage/intensity.

Max temps today look to mostly range from the upper 60s to mid
70s in the mountains and low to mid 80s in the Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1. Scattered showers in the mountains Wednesday and Thursday,
otherwise dry through the period.
2. Below normal temperatures.

A large upper low will be centered over eastern Canada through the
end of the workweek. A shortwave will rotate through the base of the
trough Wednesday night, which may spark some scattered showers in
the western mountains, though this activity will quickly wane after
sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Another wave traverses the
trough Thursday afternoon, and could bring additional chances of
showers, though most of the shower activity at this time looks to be
much farther east, near coastal VA and NC. The drier airmass over
the region will help to limit any showers in the area. A broad area
of surface high pressure will build in as the trough axis shifts
east of the area by late Thursday and through Friday, which will
keep Friday dry.

The surface high that will become situated overhead builds in from
the north, bringing a cooler and drier airmass to the region. Winds
will be generally northwesterly through the forecast period, but
turn easterly as the high moves in. Below normal temperatures,
northwesterly winds, and lower dewpoints will make it feel cool
for the end of the month. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s,
possibly dropping into the low 40s for the typical cold spots by
Friday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1. Temperatures on a warming trend, and dry weather through the
weekend.
2. Rain chances increase by Sunday and into next work week.

Surface high pressure will be settled over much of the eastern US
through most of the weekend, moving eastward and offshore by late
Sunday. Mid level flow transitions to more zonal by Sunday, with a
shortwave trough expected to move along it and into the area late in
the weekend, while an area of surface low pressure heads eastward
into the northern Mid Atlantic. Return flow off the Atlantic from
the high as it tracks eastward will increase moisture in the region,
and with the passage of the shortwave, expecting chances for showers
and possible thunderstorms to return to the area by Sunday
afternoon. Chances for afternoon showers and storms continue Monday
and Tuesday, though confidence is lower on timing and coverage,
given the spread in the long range deterministic guidance.

Subsidence from the surface high and ample daytime heating will
start temperatures on a warming trend through the forecast period,
and highs are expected to climb back to seasonal normals, in the 70s
to 80s, and lows in the 50s to 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 650 AM EDT Tuesday...

Mainly VFR conditions through period though some MVFR cigs could
flirt with KBLF and KLWB this morning. Otherwise expect FEW/SCT
cu field near 4-5 kft today into this evening. Could have some
alto coverage by this evening also. Some isolated SHRA/TSRA
possible mainly this afternoon near KLWB but chance not high
enough to include in TAF. Winds generally light out of the west
this morning, increasing to 7-11 kts during the day (gusts near
18-20 kts for KBLF and KLWB), then light west to calm this
evening into tonight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR tonight through much of the week. There is a low chance for
showers and thunderstorms across WV Wednesday.

Patchy fog with periods of MVFR/LIFR will be possible in the
mornings near mountain and river valleys.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AB/WP
NEAR TERM...AB/AMS
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...AB/RAB