822
FXUS61 KRNK 311841
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
241 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will cover the Mid Atlantic region tonight through
Saturday then will move offshore by Sunday. Dry weather with
unseasonably cool temperatures will continue into the weekend.
Showers and thunderstorms return to the region for much of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1140 AM EDT Friday...

Key message:

   - Tranquil weather continues

Ideal cooling conditions tonight with a clear sky and wind speeds
decoupling around sunset. Only exception will be some thin cirrus
over the North Carolina mountains which is not expected to hamper
the drop in temperature. The dry airmass limits cloud cover and
precipitation on Saturday. Will again have a large diurnal spread
between lows tonight and highs on Saturday. Will trend toward lower
guidance for minimum temperatures tonight, especially in the
typically colder locations. Maximum temperatures on Saturday will be
near normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1: Showers and storms make their return early this week.

An ill-defined zone of low pressure and a weak mid-level shortwave
will chase high pressure off of the coast Saturday night. Chances
for precip will rise throughout the day Sunday, with scattered
thunderstorms  peppering the area from the mid-afternoon into the
evening.

Synoptic factors contributing to rain chances will be limited
through Monday. Zonal flow aloft and no well defined surface
features in the eastern CONUS points to little support. Monday
afternoon will see diurnal showers in the afternoon as surface
heating destabilizes the atmosphere. Rain will be more prevalent in
the mountains west of the Blue Ridge, as orographic effects work to
assist modest instability.

Temperatures will be on the upswing after an abnormally cool
weekend. Highs in the 70s and low 80s Sunday, then into the upper
70s/mid 80s Monday. Overnight temps will settle around the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 220 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1: Late week front will keep rain in the forecast

Diurnal showers will continue into the mid-week as the synoptic
environment remains unimpressive. Later Wednesday a deepening trough
(potentially a cut off low) will make its way through the northern
Plains. A front will be associated with this system, and as we
remain in the warm sector southerly flow will keep supplying enough
moisture advection off of the Gulf of Mexico to maintain diurnal
showers and storms. The timing for the passage of the front over
southwestern VA remains muddled, with discrepancies from model to
model. When it does enter the area in the late week; however, we can
expect widespread showers and potentially some stronger
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 240 PM EDT Friday...

Widespread VFR expected for the valid 24hr TAF period.

Ideal cooling conditions tonight with a clear sky and wind speeds
decoupling around sunset. Only exception will be some thin cirrus
over the North Carolina mountains which is not expected to hamper
the drop in temperature. The dry airmass limits cloud cover and
precipitation on Saturday. Patchy IFR fog is expected along the
New and Greenbrier Rivers but is not expected to impact local
TAFs.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR conditions continue through the beginning of the weekend,
aside from potential fog at LWB/BCB early in the mornings.

Storms may bring periods of sub-VFR conditions Sunday afternoon
through Wednesday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...AMS/BMG