095
FXUS61 KRNK 011509
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1109 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure still remains in control today, but will begin to
slide offshore by tonight. Increasing chance of showers and storms
by Sunday and daily showers and storms will be possible for
much of the upcoming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1105 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

 -Dry today, but shower chances increase late tonight...

Only change at this time was to adjust cloud cover based on the
12Z 3KM NAM and NBM guidance, along with with the latest
satellite images.


Previous discussion
As of 220 AM EDT Saturday...

Surface high pressure will shift offshore today as weak low
pressure associated with a subtle upper wave moving into the
Ohio Valley. Will see a transition to a more southerly flow,
resulting is moderating temperatures today and a slight
increase in dew points.

Temperatures this morning will be chilly once again, but should
rebound quickly to the 70s and low 80s by this afternoon under
partly sunny skies.

In advance of the approaching system, will see high clouds
begin to filter in by the afternoon/evening and will be mostly
cloudy overnight. May have a few showers reach the far western
areas of southwest Virginia and southeast West Virginia late
tonight. Not expecting any thunder with this activity.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for showers and thunderstorms to return by
Sunday to end the recent stretch of dry weather.

2) Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue through
Monday and Tuesday.

The dry weather from the past few days will come to an end by Sunday
morning as a weak area of low pressure pushes a cold front into the
Appalachian Mountains. Showers will spread eastward, and scattered
thunderstorms should develop by midday and linger through the
afternoon. Weak high pressure should pass to the north during Sunday
night into Monday morning. However, the frontal boundary associated
with the earlier wave of low pressure will stall across the Mid
Atlantic as it becomes parallel with the zonal upper level flow. As
a result, more chances of showers and thunderstorms should persist
through Monday and Tuesday with the highest coverage expected during
the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures overall should run a
little above normal for early June.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for more daily chances of showers and
thunderstorms through the remainder of the work week.

2) Stronger storms may be possible by Wednesday into Thursday due to
an approaching cold front.

A potent upper level trough will dive southeastward from the
northern Plains to the Great Lakes on Wednesday, which will shove a
more notable cold front into the Ohio River Valley. With the
increasing synoptic lift aloft and plenty of heat and moisture
available from a southerly flow, more organized thunderstorms could
develop by Wednesday afternoon and evening. Organized convection
should continue into Thursday with the cold front crossing the
Appalachian Mountains sometime during Thursday night. Model
discrepancies still exist for Friday, but it appears that the cold
front will eventually reach the East Coast by the end of the work
week. However, there could still be lingering showers and perhaps an
isolated thunderstorm on Friday due to the closing proximity of the
upper level trough.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 630 AM EDT Friday...

Widespread VFR continues through the valid 24hr TAF period.

Light southerly winds today and increasing high clouds by this
afternoon/evening. Perhaps a shower across the West Virginia
mountains and western Virginia towards the end of the TAF
period, but no restrictions expected.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Mainly VFR through the week but showers/storms may bring
periods of sub- VFR conditions, along with the potential for
morning valley fog.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS/BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BMG