899
FXUS63 KSGF 260741
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
241 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms for the remainder of the overnight
  into Sunday morning. All modes of severe weather will be
  possible.

- Redevelopment of strong to severe weather this afternoon into
  the early evening possible along any outlflows and with cold
  front. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main severe
  weather risks.

- Flood Watch in effect until 7 pm for the entire area.
  Repeating thunderstorms could produce 1-3 inches of rainfall.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 241 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery
and upper level analysis show an upper level shortwave currently
shifting east across the plains. 90 to 100 kt upper level jet
streak was pushing northeast out of TX and OK into southeast KS
and southwest MO. Lower in the atmosphere, 850mb analysis shows
a strong low level jet of 50 to 55kts from eastern OK into
western MO. At the surface, low pressure was located over
central KS with a stationary boundary bisecting our CWA from
northwest to southeast. Supercell activity over southeast KS and
northwest AR with additional line segments over northeast KS.
Temperatures across the CWA were in the low to mid 70s with dew
points in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Rest of tonight into Sunday morning: Severe convection will
continue to track east across southern Missouri during the
remainder of the overnight. Large hail up to baseball size,
damaging wind gusts over 70 mph and tornadoes will remain
possible with these supercells. Intense rainfall rates will also
lead to some flash flooding where the heaviest rain falls and we
have a flood watch out until 7 pm this evening.

This afternoon into Tonight: An upper level wave will shift into
the area this afternoon, while the surface low and cold front
will push into the CWA. If enough atmospheric recovery can take
place from this mornings convection, sufficient instability
should build up ahead of the cold front and any remnant
boundaries for the redevelopment of strong to severe convection
during the afternoon and evening. The most likely areas for
severe convective redevelopment this afternoon will be east of
the US 65 corridor. Large hail up to golf ball size and damaging
wind gusts in excess of 70 mph will be the main severe weather
risks. An isolated tornado risk will also be possible. Most of
the activity should exit the area by 10 pm.

Overnight and Monday: Clearing should take place overnight
tonight behind the cold front and upper wave, with drier air
moving into the area. Surface high pressure will move into the
area tonight into Monday. Lows in the upper 50s to low 60s are
expected tonight with highs on Monday in the upper 70s to low
80s.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 241 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

On Monday night, another strong upper level wave will drop
southeast over the upper Mississippi valley region and into the
Great Lakes region Tuesday into Tuesday night. This will keep us
in a northwest flow pattern into the middle of the week with
surface high pressure being reinforced over the region. Dry and
slightly cooler temperatures are expected during this period.

High pressure will shift eastward during the end of the week and
will allow moisture to start creeping back into the area over
the western CWA with precipitation chances increasing over the
area from late in the week into the upcoming weekend(20-50%).

Temperatures in the later part of the long term will be near
seasonal norms.



&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

For the 06z TAFS, some isolated/scattered strong to severe
convection over northeast OK and southeast KS will push into the
area over the next several hours affecting all 3 TAF sites.
Additional convection to the northwest in northeast KS will
likely form into a squall line and dive southeast into the area,
possibly affecting SGF between 11z and 16z this morning.
Scattered afternoon convection can`t be ruled out, but most of
this activity should stay north and east of the forecast points.
The strong and severe convection will have the potential for
large hail and severe wind gusts. Things should clear out during
the early evening hours.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch through this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Flood Watch through this evening for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg