130
FXUS63 KSGF 270508
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1208 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon/evening with
  large hail up to tennis balls, damaging winds up to 80 mph,
  and a few tornadoes possible. Chance of strong tornadoes along
  and east of HWY 63.

- Flood Watch in effect until 1 AM for most of the area.

- Expect a bit calmer week with temperatures near seasonal
  norms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 326 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

SPC has upgraded areas east of HWY 65 to a Moderate Risk for
today. Latest surface analysis shows a warm front draped over SW MO
following a boundary from JLN to BBG. Probability of lightning over
a band of showers just north of the front from Butler to Jefferson
City has started to increase. Storm initialization is expected
to start over central MO and will continue to spread southward.
Rapid destabilization is occurring for areas east of HWY 65.
Dewpoints are in the mid 70s with agitated cumulus taking over
most of the area. Our 19z special balloon sounding is showing
40-55 knots of deep layer shear, mid-level lapse rates of 8
degrees/km with 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 4300 J/kg of MUCAPE with
a weak cap.

With a primed atmosphere in place this afternoon, supercells will be
favorable over the next few hours especially as the cold front over
central OK continues to push east. All modes of severe weather are
possible with golf ball to tennis ball sized hail and 60-70 mph wind
gusts with these storms. A few tornadoes are possible especially for
southeastern MO for areas east of HWY 63. Any supercells that
get going in that area could produce a strong tornado or two
(EF2+). Storms have already begun to pop up in NE OK and central
MO. Convection is expected to continue through the afternoon
into the evening hours. Storms should be out of the area by
10pm-12am.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 326 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

On Monday expect a break in active weather with highs in the 80s,
another strong upper level wave will drop southeast over the upper
Mississippi valley region and into the Great Lakes region Tuesday
into Tuesday night. This will keep us in a northwest flow pattern
into the middle of the week with surface high pressure being
reinforced over the region. Dry and slightly cooler temperatures are
expected during this period.

High pressure will shift eastward during the end of the week and
will allow moisture to start creeping back into the area over the
western CWA with precipitation chances increasing over the area from
late in the week into the upcoming weekend(20-50%).

Temperatures in the later part of the long term will be near
seasonal norms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

High confidence in VFR conditions persisting through the TAF
period, with nighttime microphysics satellite imagery showing
very thin high level clouds scattered across southern Missouri.
Northwesterly surface winds should remain between 5-10 kts
through this evening before diminishing even further below 5
kts overnight tonight. Some patchy fog may develop in areas that
received ample rainfall over the past 24 hours, however not
expecting this to affect visibilities at the terminals.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Melto