Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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176 FXUS63 KSGF 270755 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 255 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions through midweek, with temperatures near seasonal norms. - Precipitation chances will increase towards the end of the week into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 251 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Nighttime Microphysics Satellite Imagery shows some thin high level clouds scattered around southern Missouri. Some isolated convection can be seen on satellite and radar towards central Missouri as a subtle shortwave brings upper level energy and elevated instability to the area. Some of this activity has filtered into our northern counties, however convection has so- far remained sub-severe, with the exception of a cell in Moniteau/Cole counties (bordering Morgan and Miller counties). Any further convection that filters through the CWA during the early morning hours should remain below severe limits, with activity diminishing by sunrise. Some residual flooding is ongoing across the area as widespread heavy rainfall was observed over the last 24 hours. As of 245 AM, there are currently two Flood Warnings in effect for far southwest Missouri (McDonald and Barry counties) and south central Missouri (Dent, Shannon, and Texas counties), along with several river flood warnings. With the Memorial Day Holiday today, remain aware of any flooded low water crossings or rivers. With clear skies and high relative humidities/wet soil from the recent rainfall, some patchy fog has started to become visible on satellite imagery, which will continue to be possible across portions of the area early this morning. Currently not expecting this to become widespread or dense. Otherwise, the rest of the day today will remain dry with highs in the low to mid 80s (mid 80s closer to far southeast KS and the MO/AR border) as surface high pressure filters into the area. Tonight will yield lows in the upper 50s to low 60s across the Ozark region. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 251 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 On Tuesday, an upper level low looks to pivot southeast into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions, reinforcing the northwest flow and surface high pressure over most of the area. This will allow for dry weather to continue through midweek, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s Tuesday, and slightly cooler in the mid to upper 70s Wednesday. A shortwave trough looks to push south of the area over the southern U.S on Wednesday, with an associated surface low and stationary front bisecting Texas. Any rain associated with this system should stay southwest of the area, however some low-end chances (15-25% pops) of scattered precipitation exist in the far southwest portions of Missouri Wednesday afternoon/evening. Most of the area should remain dry. Towards the end of the week, the surface high pressure will begin to shift east as an upper level system progresses through Canada/the northern U.S. and several shortwaves push through the region. As a result, precipitation chances will begin to increase, with 30-50% chances Thursday night into the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1202 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 High confidence in VFR conditions persisting through the TAF period, with nighttime microphysics satellite imagery showing very thin high level clouds scattered across southern Missouri. Northwesterly surface winds should remain between 5-10 kts through this evening before diminishing even further below 5 kts overnight tonight. Some patchy fog may develop in areas that received ample rainfall over the past 24 hours, however not expecting this to affect visibilities at the terminals. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Melto LONG TERM...Melto AVIATION...Melto