Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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461 FXUS64 KSHV 010620 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 120 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 957 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 A few scattered showers have developed this evening across portions of Southwest Arkansas in response to an upper trough axis moving across the region. This activity should remain light and is expected to gradually move east and out of the area shortly after midnight. With the upper trough still nearby, slight chance PoPs were maintained across the eastern zones through the early morning hours. However, PoPs were generally lowered areawide for the remainder of tonight. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast appears on track. CN && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday Night) Issued at 112 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Atmosphere really struggling to destabilize after early morning convection has moved nearly through our region this afternoon. Still monitoring some light to moderate precipitation across our far SE zones as well as some very light precipitation underneath the upper low itself across portions of SE OK, SW AR and NE LA. While our area is still under the influence of weak to moderate upper forcing and scattered thunderstorm development is still very possible across our east and northeast half through the remainder of the afternoon and evening hours, do not believe this is enough to justify the Flood Watch that was in effect. Therefore, given output from a majority of CAMS, not to mention HREF and other deterministic models, have decided to cancel the Flood Watch with this forecast package. Concerning the severe thunderstorm risk for the remainder of the day across our eastern half, thinking is that this will be more isolated in nature and confined to our far eastern zones vs all of N LA and most of SW AR and confined to the early evening hours only. Still weighted pops heavier across our far northern and eastern zones this evening but keeping slight chance pops even across the west and southwest as some of the CAMS are still hinting of some late night convection along a residual shear axis near the I-20 Corridor late tonight but coverage should be isolated to widely scattered if we see it at all. Other than isolated to widely scattered morning convection on Sat, convection during the day should be tied to mostly diurnal heating as we should become much more unstable on Saturday than we are today. Upper forcing will be present due to dirty west northwest flow aloft present across our mainly the southern half of our region and thus, pops on Sat are weighted heavier across our southern zones but still kept pops in the scattered category even across our northern half given the expected storm coverage. Concerning temperatures, did come off NBM fcst mins slightly overnight given the possibility of overnight fog across mainly our western zones but otherwise should see a slight warming trend commence on Saturday and that trend will continue into Sunday and into the long term portion of the forecast as well. 13 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 112 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Sunday into at least Monday, our region will continue to be under the influence of WNW flow aloft and thus, we will continue to experience at least scattered convection across our region both days, much of which will be tied to diurnal heating. By Wednesday, strong upper ridging should begin developing across the Southern and Central Plains into the Intermountain West and it appears that this feature will be intruding far enough east into our CWA to divert higher pops to our north and east. This upstream ridging is then forecast to migrate eastward, encompassing more of the Southern Plains/Lower Miss Valley which should result in even less convection coverage for the later half of the work week. Of course with the influence of upper ridging comes hotter temperatures with afternoon highs well into the 90s beginning Tue and continuing through at least Thursday. Given how moist soils are currently, will need to watch for the possibility of Heat Advisory criteria being met with Heat Indices near 105 degrees. 13 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 100 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 For the ArkLaTex terminals, under fair skies the opportunity for fog has never been better. Light and variable wind and a brief window for LIFR/IFR 12-15Z improving back to MVFR/VFR after 15Z. Winds will be W/SW and convection keeping along and south of I-20. /24/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 71 89 75 90 / 20 40 20 20 MLU 69 88 72 89 / 20 50 20 20 DEQ 65 86 69 87 / 20 40 30 40 TXK 68 88 72 89 / 20 40 20 30 ELD 66 87 70 88 / 20 40 20 30 TYR 71 88 74 90 / 20 30 20 20 GGG 70 88 74 90 / 20 30 20 20 LFK 72 89 74 91 / 20 40 20 20 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...24