Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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934 FXUS64 KSHV 281825 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 125 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday Night) Issued at 107 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Gotta love northwest flow season in the ArkLaTex. To say it`s been an active day severe thunderstorm wise is an understatement at we are finally beginning to see light at the end of the tunnel so to speak with the rain coming to an end across our far northwest zones. Still dealing with severe convection across our far southern zones but the best instability by far resides just to our south and thus Severe Thunderstorm Watch 371 will be allowed to expire without any additional extension necessary at 2 pm. For the remainder of the night, already seeing new convection developing across NW and NC OK attm and this combined with renewed convection expected across the Upper Red Basin of NW TX and SW OK promises to head our way late tonight. Not saying late night and early Wednesday Morning upstream convection will be as intense and expansive as what we witnessed this morning as the low level jet which ofter feeds these nocturnal convective systems does not appear to be as stout as what we saw this morning but an increase in storm coverage and intensity is forecast just upstream of our region late tonight and expect this to move into our far northwest zones after midnight towards daybreak on Wednesday. Remnant upper forcing should combine with daytime heating on Wednesday to support scattered to numerous storm coverage once again with storms on Wednesday likely dissipating Wed Night from west to east. Undercut temps tonight and shaved NBM temps on Wed given the forecast storm coverage. 13 && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 107 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 While the upper ridge across the Intermountain west does begin to move out into the Great Plains late Wed thru Thursday, the upper flow pattern remains fairly chaotic as disturbances will continue to move our way from the Upper and Middle Red River Valley. With plentiful moisture in place not to mention daytime heating not to mention nocturnal energy generated by an always active late May low level jet, these are the perfect ingredients for daytime and nighttime convection so kept pops at least in the high scattered variety most areas through at least Saturday. Beyond Sat, the medium range progs are split on just how active our pattern will be for Sunday and into early next week. Did back off pops slightly Sunday thru Tue, given this was the NBM trend but needless to say, we are stuck in a milder but very wet pattern through at least Saturday of this week. 13 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1144 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 An active pattern is ongoing across the airspace this morning as multiple MCS arrangements move east. This has impacted much of the east Texas terminals with +TSRA conditions, while a mix of SHRA and VCTS extend north and east across the Louisiana and Arkansas terminals. Given the meso focused environment of the dual MCS presentation, following the passing of the second complex close to 18z, guidance, cross section analysis, and regional satellite imagery do point towards some scattering of the area clouds and even the chance for brief SKC for some terminals. This has been noticed west of the DFW metro, and if the complex can continue to remain progressive, some clearing, even if brief, appears in the cards. That being said, due to lack of confidence in forecast solutions up to this point, have elected to keep some cloud debris locally across the terminals this evening and overnight, ahead of a return to some BKN conditions by mid morning. AMD`s will be issued if changes are needed. RK && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 71 85 70 85 / 30 70 50 50 MLU 69 85 67 84 / 30 70 60 50 DEQ 64 78 63 79 / 30 70 50 40 TXK 67 82 66 82 / 30 70 50 40 ELD 65 83 63 81 / 30 70 50 40 TYR 69 84 70 84 / 50 70 40 50 GGG 68 83 69 83 / 50 70 50 50 LFK 70 85 69 85 / 50 70 50 60 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...53