861
FXUS64 KSHV 270554
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1254 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Given a favorable enough environment, Tornado Watch #329 was
issued until 4 AM CDT for southern Arkansas and northern
Louisiana. /16/


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

As expected, SSW winds have increased across the Wrn sections of
the region, in response to the tight pressure gradient present
ahead of a sfc low over SE KS/SW MO. In fact, winds have gusted to
near 30kts especially over portions of E TX, and thus, have
maintained the Wind Advisory in effect for much of E TX/SE
OK/Miller County AR, and extreme NW LA. But despite the low level
moisture advection ahead of the dryline which has mixed E into NW
AR/SE OK/N TX, temps and the attendant heat indices have yet to
reach Heat Advisory criteria across the region as of 1930Z, but
have opted to leave the Advisory as is until its 00Z expiration as
some localized areas may still near criteria on this holiday
weekend.

The afternoon water vapor imagery indicates the our shortwave
trough over has nudged E into Wrn OK/WCntrl TX, and should help
reinforce the dryline/weak cool front farther E into NE TX/SW AR
this evening before becoming stationary (for the time being) along
the AR/LA border late. A few of the various CAMs continue to
suggest that isolated convection may develop this evening along
this front, despite the shallow low level moisture in place.
Should the moisture/forcing be sufficient enough, strong SBCapes
and steep mid level lapse rates would help aid in convection
development, which may persist through a portion of the overnight
hours. Have expanded slight chance/low chance pops over much of
the area, with the higher pops over Srn AR/N LA. Weak cool
advection and a clear sky should yield slightly cooler temps
along/NW of the I-30 corridor, but will have to await for weak sfc
ridging building in from the NW to help reinforce the weak front S
into Cntrl LA/more of E TX Monday before it slows again. Although
the NBM is keeping the Srn and Wrn zones near the front dry
Monday, did add slight chance pops for Cntrl LA and Deep E TX to
respect moisture pooling, higher instability, and the potential
for isolated convection, which is hinted amongst a few of the
CAMs. While max temps should be hotter Monday than what has/will
be observed this afternoon, drier air mixing S behind the fropa
will maintain heat indices below Heat Advisory criteria for much
of the region. However, the Srn counties and parishes in Deep E
TX/Cntrl LA will near criteria, but have opted to hold off
extending the advisory for these areas given the uncertainty of
the true frontal position, and extent of drier air mixing S.

15

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

The weak front still remains progged to linger across the Srn
zones Monday evening before drifting farther S overnight with the
lack of mixing, and have added slight chance pops for the evening
for these areas. The flow aloft is then expected to transition to
NW Monday night, and appears to set the stage for an unsettled
long term period Tuesday through Saturday especially as the
stationary bndry may linger at least through midweek from
Ncntrl/ECntrl TX into SW and Cntrl LA. While the ECMWF/GFS all
suggest an active long term period, they both differ on timing
and extent of convection, and thus confidence remains low in
regards to pops for the upcoming abbreviated work week. Did not
make many changes from the NBM pops this week, keeping chance pops
across the region. It`s certainly possible that pops will be
increased as these events near, especially as mesoscale details
are determined with the anticipated convection. The increased
cloud cover and convection should also maintain near normal temps
through the period.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

For the 27/06Z TAF update, MVFR vis/cigs will continue through
27/16Z before gradual improvement to VFR under light winds as
frontal passage continues across the area. /16/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  74  91  71 /  10  10  30  30
MLU  95  70  93  69 /  10  10  20  20
DEQ  93  64  87  64 /   0  10  30  40
TXK  94  69  89  67 /   0  10  30  40
ELD  93  67  90  65 /   0  10  20  20
TYR  95  73  90  69 /  10  10  40  40
GGG  95  71  90  69 /  10  10  30  40
LFK  96  75  93  72 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...16