152
FXUS64 KSHV 271730
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1230 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

For this updated, decided to add slight chance to low chance POPs
for a large portion of the region south of the Interstate 20
corridor. This was based on recent runs of short-term progs, which
continue to suggest some isolated convection will develop along a
weak cool front currently moving across the region. Also, based on
current forecasted temperature and humidity trends, decided to add
our Central Louisiana parishes and Shelby County Texas to the
current Heat Advisory. Otherwise, expect above normal temperatures
to remain across the area today, with highs in the low to mid 90s.

/20/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Convergence ahead of an approaching frontal boundary within an
airmass rich in moisture has maintained potentially severe convection
through the early morning hours. With convection moving out of
the ongoing Tornado Watch 329 area at this time, went ahead and
cancelled the watch slightly early with no need to reissue
downstream.

Cold front to push through much of the region today bringing
lower dewpoints areawide. However, portions of Deep East Texas may
not experience the benefits of the drier air before the time of
peak heating when temperatures approach the mid to upper 90s. The
combination of hot temperatures and high relative humidity values
will result in heat index values around 105 degrees across the
lakes region of Deep East Texas. Therefore, a Heat Advisory has
been issued for these areas. Otherwise, the remainder of the
region should experience high temperatures inn the lower to middle
90s.

A weak mid-level disturbance translating east across the region
may allow for a few stray showers and thunderstorms across mainly
northeast Texas this evening into the overnight hours. Otherwise,
mainly dry conditions to prevail with lows ranging from the mid
60s across the lower 70s.

Upper-level across Mexico to allow for northwest flow across the
region on Tuesday. A disturbance translating southeast within the
overall flow regime will allow for a round of convection on
Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures are forecast to climb into the mid
80s to lower 90s. /05/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

An unsettled pattern will persist through the long-term period as
a series of mesoscale features influence ongoing episodes of
scattered convection each day. From Wednesday through late-week
the main focus for convection will be a lingering latitudinal
oriented frontal boundary across the northern gulf coast that will
eventually lift north as a warm front during the weekend.
Convection along the boundary will be driven by mesoscale
disturbances within the upper-flow pattern. To cover convective
uncertainty through the long-term period, went with an overall
broad-brush approach of periodic scattered pops through the
period. Additionally, within a northwest flow pattern this time of
year, it is possible for some strong storms to develop during
higher pop episodes at times of greatest diurnal heating and
instability.

Temperatures through the long-term period to range from highs in
the 80s to lows in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees each day. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

For the 27/18z TAF update...Satellite imagery is showing some
lower CIGs moving across deep east Texas that has brought some IFR
to LIFR conditions for KLFK. Aside from that, seeing fairly
widespread VFR to MVFR flight conditions due to some HZ and BR.
CIGs should improve this afternoon some for all areas, returning
to more widespread VFR conditions. We will see some return of
lower ceilings during the overnight hours for some of our east
Texas terminals. Aside from that, we have some low end chances of
precipitation return to portions of the area by the end of the
period. /33/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  90  70  84 /  10  30  30  50
MLU  70  92  69  83 /  10  20  20  40
DEQ  65  86  65  80 /  10  20  30  40
TXK  69  89  67  81 /  10  30  30  40
ELD  67  89  65  80 /  10  20  30  40
TYR  72  89  69  83 /  20  40  40  50
GGG  71  89  69  83 /  20  30  40  50
LFK  74  92  72  86 /  20  30  30  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ017-018-020-022.

OK...None.
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ149-152-153-
     165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...33