579
FXUS64 KSHV 171957
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
257 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Slow-moving upper trough axis continues to trudge its way across the
Red River Valley this afternoon, maintaining expansive cloud cover
but very little in the way of convection thus far. However, we may
see a slight uptick in convective coverage this evening across our
NW zones invof the base of the trough axis as it shifts along the
I-30 corridor. Farther south along the TX coast, southern stream
shortwave energy is embedded within SW flow aloft just north of a
sfc frontal boundary just off the coast. This could also allow for
some isolated convection to affect our southeasternmost zones this
evening, but overall expect the region to remain largely free of
convection tonight with low temperatures ranging through the 60s.

As the upper trough gradually shifts east of the region through
the day on Saturday, expect any lingering convection across our
easternmost zones to gradually diminish throughout the day. High
temperatures will recover rather comfortably as cloud cover thins
throughout the day as well, allowing for mid and upper 80s to near
90 degrees in a few locations. Clearing skies tomorrow evening and
overnight along with light winds will yield another night of lows
in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

A return of warmer and more humid conditions will commence on
Sunday as high pressure shifts east of the region and Gulf of
Mexico moisture gradually increases from early to mid next week.
Looking aloft, an upper ridge will also be building across the
South Central CONUS, further serving to propel high temperatures
into the lower and possibly mid 90s by Sunday and especially into
next week.

The ridge axis will eventually shift farther into the SE CONUS by
mid to late week, opening the door for the next trough out west
to encroach on our region. This will assist a frontal boundary in
advancing SE toward our northern zones by late Wednesday and into
Thursday, but uncertainty remains as to how far south this front
will manage to make it before stalling. Regardless, this should
allow for at least some low end rain chances to return to much of
the region by mid to late week along with slightly milder temps to
end the period.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

For the ArkLaTex terminals, low level circulation over SE OK with
the W/SW flow aloft buckling a weak upper level reflection as
well. And this may touch off some nearby showers or isold TS for
KTXK/KELD by early this evening with what heating remains until
about 03Z. Then some MVFR cigs toward daybreak and through mid
morning, but maybe not everywhere. We will be seeing VFR quicker
over the wknd by 15/16Z each day with heating building. Next
chance for convection will arrive late in the work week. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  89  69  92 /  10  10   0   0
MLU  67  88  67  90 /  20  20   0   0
DEQ  62  86  64  89 /  30  10   0   0
TXK  66  88  67  92 /  20  10   0   0
ELD  64  87  65  90 /  20  20   0   0
TYR  67  89  69  91 /  10   0   0   0
GGG  66  88  68  91 /  10  10   0   0
LFK  66  89  68  91 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...24