501
FXUS64 KSHV 040932
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
432 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Rain cooled air yet again with most of the area in the mid to
upper 60s. The coolest reading is 64 in Minden and slightly drier
overnight down in Lufkin and surrounding areas warmer with low to
mid 70s. Our winds are S/SE on the surface and due S on the VAD
up to over 8kft. Then SW around the freezing level with that
persistent NW flow aloft. Our next impulse is closing in on
McCurtain County in SE OK right now. Another potent push with a
widening line of thunderstorms that will push across our I-30
corridor this early morning. The expectation then is for heating
to bolster the activity once again later this morning, and
progress on down our I-49 corridor, not clearing our Parishes
until late this afternoon, at least on the HRRR.

Which we recall ended up doing a fantastic prognostication 24 hrs
ago on lastnight`s activity. In light of the inches of rainfall
soaking our soils, we have hoisted a flood watch for today,
tonight and tomorrow. Now not every where will see the same
amounts or heavy rains for all, but we know the number of flash
flood warnings has doubled last night from Sunday nights effort.
So please keep abreast when these thunderstorm complexes approach
as "Some ,maybe Heavy" will likely apply. The models show a
deeper H500 push overnight once again and we may be dealing with
much more thunderstorm activity this time tomorrow morning.
Likewise, this activity will cool pool southeastward with time.
The last bout should come to an end during Wednesday afternoon
from NW to SE over our Four- State area. Little change on temps
expected with the deep southerly flow at least in this short term.
/24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Behind this H500 push early Wednesday, weak high pressure will
settle across the plains and begin to limit the fetch of the
breeding grounds for these complexes of thunderstorms. So we are
still expecting less coverage and intensity in the coming days.
This will mean more June sunshine and slightly warmer temps in
the lower 90s each afternoon through the weekend. Our morning
lows will tack on a few degrees with less of these rain cooled
nights. The stronger area of surface high pressure expected this
weekend will still be arriving and shifting our winds to NE for
Friday and night, and then veering to SE again early on Saturday.
However, the frontal boundary on arrival may not bring as much
additional rainfall as the nocturnal potential over the boundary
each night this weekend as the low level jet keeps the moisture
flow off the Gulf into the weekend. The deep parent low over the
Ohio valley will just sit and spin in place into mid month, the
way it looks right now. June is getting an early jump on the pace
of rain we have seen since January. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

For the 04/06Z TAF period, still dealing with convection across
our northern and eastern airspace early this morning but coverage
and intensity has greatly diminished. This trend is expected to
continue through the remainder of this morning with low stratus
returning as we approach daybreak and thereafter with MVFR/IFR
cigs likely through the first half of the period before improving
back to VFR toward midday/early afternoon. Additional convection
during the day Tuesday remains difficult to pin down so have only
inserted VCTS starting around midday through the afternoon hours.
Otherwise, S/SE winds will prevail between 5-15 kts with higher
gusts invof of any convection.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  74  89  75 /  40  20  50  20
MLU  88  72  87  72 /  60  10  60  30
DEQ  87  69  87  68 /  50  40  30  10
TXK  88  72  88  71 /  40  30  40  10
ELD  86  70  86  69 /  40  20  50  10
TYR  91  73  89  73 /  30  20  30  10
GGG  90  74  89  72 /  30  20  40  20
LFK  91  75  91  73 /  20  10  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Wednesday evening
     for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Wednesday evening
     for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Wednesday evening
     for OKZ077.

TX...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Wednesday evening
     for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...19