809
FXUS64 KSHV 212047
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
347 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Quiet conditions across the region today, with mostly cloudy
skies. Despite the clouds, temps are still running well above
normal, with most areas seeing upper 80s to around 90 degrees at
this hour. The center of the upper level ridge in place this
morning has started to shift south of the region. This has allowed
for southwesterly flow aloft to develop over the area. A weak
short-wave along the flow has already kicked off some isolated
showers and thunderstorms to the west and northwest of the region.
Progs haven`t handled this very well, but the 06z ECMWF kinda
shows some indication of this. The storms haven`t been severe, but
some have been strong enough for our surrounding offices to issue
SPS`s. Expect some of this convection to eventually move into our
NW zones later this afternoon before diminishing. The best chance
for this occurring will be across areas along and north of I-30
corridor. SPC has continued to highlight a Slight Risk for severe
storms in the aforementioned area. This is mostly due to some
additional convection developing this evening along a front moving
across Oklahoma. This convection could move into our Slight Risk
zones before diminishing again late this evening. Hail and
damaging winds will be our primary threat.

The front will likely stall just to the NW of the region tonight, but
additional convection is expected to develop along it as early as
Wednesday morning. Although the front should remain NW of the
area, the convection is likely to make it into the region
throughout the day on Wednesday. uncertainty remains on how far
south the convection will make it into the region, but we are
pretty confident areas along and north of I-30 will see the brunt
of the storms. SPC has highlighted this with an Enhanced risk for
severe weather. It does appear that large large hail and damaging
winds are the greatest risk, but can`t rule out tornadoes. If
these storms train, flash flooding could also become a risk. The
convection should start to diminish in coverage by Wednesday
evening, but with residual boundaries left over from convection,
decided to keep pops in place along and north of I-20 through
Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

The frontal boundary will retreat more north of the region on
Thursday, but POPs remain in the forecast. Most of this convective
development will be tied to residual boundaries in place from the
previous day convection and additional weak disturbances moving
along the flow aloft. Plenty of instability will remain in place,
so more damaging wind gusts and large hail will be possible. With
another day of convection across the area, excessive rainfall will
also become more of an issue.

By Friday and through the upcoming Memorial Holiday Weekend,
slight chance to low end chance POPs will remain in the forecast.
Most of this convection will generally be along and north of the
I-20 corridor and will be during peak heating hours. Besides the
rain, the other hazard that could be of concern is the heat.
Afternoon highs are expected to climb into the mid 90s, especially
along and south of the I-20 corridor. With low to mid 70 degree
dewpoints in place, heat indices could climb between 100-105
degrees, which is just below Heat Advisory criteria.

Still expecting a pattern shift early next week as upper ridging
appears to becomes dominate across the Intermountain West, with
troughing developing across the Midwest. This should result in a
front moving through the area, followed by a shift to NW Flow and
a cooler pattern for our region. Expect more widespread precip
chances with the frontal passage. /20/


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the afternoon and much of this
evening, although an extensive cu shield will linger across the
region as low level moisture continues to deepen with the return
Srly flow. These cigs should eventually scatter out late this
afternoon through the evening, although MVFR cigs are expected to
develop after 03Z across Deep E TX/WCntrl LA, and quickly spread N
to the I-20 corridor of E TX/Wrn LA by/after 06Z Wednesday, and
across the SW AR terminals between 08-10Z. LFK may a brief period
of IFR cigs around daybreak, before returning to MVFR by mid-
morning. These low cigs will likely linger through late
morning/midday Wednesday, before VFR cigs return. Isolated
convection will be possible early to mid evening today across
portions of extreme NE TX/SE OK/SW A, but should remain N of the
TXK terminal and thus, low confidence precludes thunder mention
attm. However, a more organized area of convection will develop
along a weak cold front across Srn and Ern OK, and will spread
into areas NW of the I-30 corridor by mid and late morning, and
could affect TXK/ELD by or shortly after the end of the 18Z TAF
period. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  77  92  73 /   0  10  40  30
MLU  90  73  90  72 /   0   0  40  20
DEQ  87  70  85  66 /  20  30  70  70
TXK  90  75  89  70 /  20  20  60  60
ELD  89  73  87  68 /   0  10  50  40
TYR  90  76  90  72 /  10  20  40  30
GGG  90  76  90  72 /  10  20  40  30
LFK  89  76  91  74 /  10   0  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...15