015
FXUS64 KSHV 040529
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1229 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New UPDATE, SHORT TERM...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

To clear severe wording PoPs/WX through the overnight post watch.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 939 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Another round in what has been a daily occurrence of MCS-driven
convection across the ArkLaTex is ongoing as of the 02Z hour this
evening, with the first complex of storms nearly departing the sHV
CWA to the southeast, while a new complex gaining intensity is
pushing out of east Texas towards the Shreveport-Bossier metro and
areas south, looking to bring destructive winds, frequent
lightning and more torrential rainfall. Severe Thunderstorm Watch
385 has been extended through midnight to include counties and
parishes in the path of this secondary complex.

On top of the convective hazards, ongoing flash flooding poses a
significant concern, with numerous roads impassable resulting in
high water rescues across the ArkLaTex.Additional rainfall will
only exacerbate this threat, with additional Flash Flood Warnings
likely.

Short term high resolution models continue to indicate the next
MCS developing overnight across central and eastern Oklahoma and
tracking south by southeast, bringing impacting to the northwest
zones of the ArkLaTex possibly as soon as the pre-dawn hours, with
impacts continuing and becoming more widespread to the south and
east across the ArkLaTex into the morning hours.

/26/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Widespread severe thunderstorm activity has moved eastward. We are
still watching a wake surge of new development riding NE up our
I-30 corridor. Some of these cells may have small hail and gusty
winds to 35 mph. Anything stronger will be alerted with
additional special weather statements. An isolated storm may
become severe, but all of this area is only half way into recovery
and even now activity is weakening in Miller County. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

A fairly active weather pattern will continue through the rest of
the week into the weekend across the Four State Region. The
aforementioned synoptic setup will not change much until ridging
across the Four Corners/West Texas builds eastward into our area
by the weekend. Until then, additional MCSs cannot be ruled out
and are notoriously tricky to catch in their initiation, speed,
and intensity by high-resolution guidance, reducing ideal forecast
certainty. That said, the best windows for more activity will be
on Wednesday and later this weekend as a frontal boundary somewhat
interrupts the best environment for convection between those two
times. Temperature maximums/minimums will remain near-to-above
normal in the lower 90s/mid-70s, respectively. /16/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 555 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

A large NE to SW convective complex continues to push SSE across
NE TX/Srn AR, and will affect the I-20 terminals in E TX/N LA between
00-04Z, resulting in gusty winds to 50kts, reduced vsbys, low
MVFR cigs, and extreme turbulence. These storms may eventually
reach LFK as well, but have lower confidence in this occurring,
although some tempo thunder was included here as well from mid to
late evening. In wake of the convection, VFR conditions will
return, and should remain VFR with elevated cigs through the
overnight hours over much of the region. Some MVFR cigs may
develop/affect LFK if the convection does not push through this
area later this evening. However, another thunderstorm complex may
develop overnight over Ern/SE OK, and spread SE into NE TX/SW
AR/N LA by/after 12Z Tuesday, affecting the area terminals through
the morning before diminishing by midday/early afternoon. In its
wake, VFR conditions will return, with elevated convective debris
lingering through the afternoon, with a scattered cu field
returning with diurnal heating as well. SSE winds 5-10kts, except
gusty in/near the convection, will become more Srly 9-12kts in
wake of the second round of convection Tuesday morning/afternoon.
/15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  91  74  93 /  10  40  20  10
MLU  73  90  72  92 /  10  50  30  10
DEQ  70  88  68  92 /  30  30   0   0
TXK  72  88  71  93 /  20  40  10  10
ELD  71  87  69  92 /  10  50  10  10
TYR  75  90  73  93 /  10  30  10   0
GGG  74  89  72  93 /  10  40  10  10
LFK  76  93  73  94 /  10  30  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...15