646
FXUS64 KSHV 230609
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
109 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1103 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Allowed SVR Watch 290 to expire on time as some additional
flooding appears to be a greater concern along I-20 in LA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday Night)
Issued at 1103 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

We still have some maybe severe wording in the grids and zones
through 06Z over the previous watch area and much will clear out
of Parishes during that time. If possible we may skip another
update and go with a new issuance early. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

As of this writing, Friday looks to begin with a discernible gap in
the precip grids, but this may be wise to take with a grain of salt,
as the ArkLaTex feels locked into something of a "rinse and repeat"
forecast cycle for at least a few more days while the pseudo-
stationary surface boundary draped along our north continues to work
with in tandem with upper level flow to steer one round of storms
after another into our region. This looks to be the case once again
by Friday evening, with storm chances along and north of the I-20
corridor developing and continuing overnight before diminishing
Saturday morning, followed by some drying Saturday afternoon and a
similar performance overnight into Sunday, this time restrained
largely to the I-30 corridor and areas to the north. Details
regarding coverage and timing are, of course, subject to change.

The weekend will see persistent southerly flow reinforce the warming
trend experienced this week, with widespread highs in the low 90s
across the region and an increase in highs climbing into the middle
90s, in concert with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, these will
make for uncomfortable to oppressive humidity for portions of the
region before a regime change finally takes effect.

Said pattern shift looks to manifest during the day Monday, as the
upper level troughing associated with the surface boundary finally
gets nudged north and east by a building ridge out of the west. This
transitional pattern will allow for northwesterly flow to return
area lows to the 60s and highs to the 80s through at least the
middle of next week, followed by a fairly quick return to the 90s by
the end of this extended forecast period.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 103 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

The first round of convection should be east of KMLU shortly after
the start of the period. Farther to the west, scattered
thunderstorms will move east across portions of Louisiana and
East Texas south of Interstate 20. It`s unsure how long this
activity will persist as it encounters more stable air with
eastward extent. KTYR may be briefly affected early in the period.
Additionally, a wake low behind the convection will result in
gusty winds through 23/09z. Another round of strong to severe
thunderstorms are expected to develop after 23/18z and will move
eastward across the region affecting all TAF sites before
diminishing late in the period.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  93  74  94 /  30   0  20  10
MLU  71  93  73  93 /  20   0  20  10
DEQ  67  87  68  88 /  60  10  40  10
TXK  70  91  72  92 /  50  10  40  10
ELD  68  91  69  91 /  40  10  40  20
TYR  73  92  73  92 /  20   0  20   0
GGG  72  91  72  92 /  30   0  20   0
LFK  73  93  74  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...09