Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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037 FXUS64 KSHV 300310 AAA AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1010 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1005 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Isolated convection that developed across portions of Deep East Texas continues to gradually dissipate. However, radar estimated some rainfall amounts potentially above 2 inches, especially in Southern Angelina County. Latest model guidance is in decent agreement that we should be quiet for the remainder of tonight. Ongoing convection across the High Plains is expected to remain west of the forecast area until after daybreak Thursday. Thus, PoPs were trimmed significantly across the area for the rest of tonight. The rest of the forecast appears to be on track. Updated text products have been sent. CN && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 108 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 MCV currently spinning across NE TX/NW LA/SW AR with only light precipitation underneath it but more impactful convection moving through our far southeast zones attm. Clouds are clearing rapidly in the wake of the disturbance across NE TX and thus, we may exceed fcst high temperatures today across our northwest half as a result before the sunset. Upper ridge axis has finally shifted east of the Rockies and has emerged across the Great Plains today and that trend will slowly continue through the end of the work week. Not seeing much in the way of disturbances upstream that could impact our region overnight but disturbances across the Tx Hill Country will be moving our way during the day Thursday and its these features that will provide the necessary forcing, which combined with daytime heating, to product scattered to numerous convection once again across the region. Severe weather parameters are not really present but an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm along with locally heavy rainfall cannot be ruled during the day Thursday. Concerning temperatures, did shave temps slightly from NBM values as they have been running just a tad warm lately and the same can be said for daytime high temperatures assuming of course we see the kind of storm coverage we should see on Thu. 13 && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 108 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 In the wake of the upper ridge across the Intermountain West will be a weakly amplified upper trough. A piece of this trough is fcst to break out into the Southern Plains late in the day Thu and move out of the Upper Red River Valley and into our far northwest zones late Thu Night. Convection associated with this disturbance will have the potential to be a damaging wind producer along with excessive heavy rainfall during the predawn hours Friday Morning and all through the day Friday across much of/if not all of the Four State Region. SPC`s Slight Convective Risk for Severe Thunderstorms and WPC`s Slight Risk for Excessive Heavy Rainfall are both highlighting our region for this potentially big weather event. Strong upstream QPF signals are highlighted by most deterministic model solutions but there is not much in the way of model run to run consistency in the exactly locations of this heavier precipitation. Thus, we will continue to monitor these threats as the event nears. Dirty near zonal to WNW flow aloft will continue through the weekend and model spread is rather large with additional upstream disturbances moving our way for the weekend. Having said this, confidence is high enough for the inclusion of scattered to numerous pop coverage Sat and Sun before maybe, and this is a big maybe, we may see enough upper ridging across the Great Plains to shunt northwest flow type convection to our east for next week. Of course if this were to happen, we would introduce very warm to hot conditions returning to at least the western half of our region due to our close proximity to the upper ridge. We have to get there first however and thus, more rain and thunderstorms are the underlying theme of both the short term and long term portion of this 7-day forecast unfortunately. 13 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 For the 30/00Z TAFs, VFR conditions look to generally continue through the evening and much of the night, save for BKN MVFR CIGs. These clouds look to scatter out through the forecast period, followed by building low clouds and associated VIS/CIG drops near to daybreak, impacting area terminals once winds decouple and become light and variable overnight. Conditions will barely have had a chance to improve tomorrow morning before a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms look to begin impacting the region. Winds throughout will be southeasterly becoming easterly and relatively light through the night, picking up again tomorrow as storms develop and approach ArkLaTex airspace. /26/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 68 84 72 81 / 10 60 30 70 MLU 67 84 68 83 / 10 60 30 70 DEQ 64 82 65 77 / 10 60 60 70 TXK 66 84 68 79 / 10 60 50 70 ELD 64 83 65 81 / 10 60 30 70 TYR 69 84 71 79 / 10 60 60 70 GGG 68 84 70 80 / 10 60 50 70 LFK 69 84 71 82 / 30 60 30 70 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...26