963
FXUS64 KSHV 011659
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1159 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 949 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Synoptic analysis this morning shows an upper trough swinging NE
of the CWA, as a shortwave embedded in the mid-level flow kicks
east of the DFW metro, en route to the Ark-La-Tex. Shortwave
forcing and outflow from a decaying early morning MCS over central
TX, along with a stalled boundary along the Louisiana Gulf Coast,
should support convective initiation later this afternoon across
the I-20 corridor and south. Guidance suggests that as boundary
response drifts north across Deep East Texas and central
Louisiana, this should collide with aforementioned western
atmospheric influence, sparking thunderstorm activity locally.

In a pattern that brings some uncertainty in convective
evolution, there still remains some caution even with a bit of
agreement within the recent CAMs. That being said, based on recent
HREF and hi-res solutions, have elected to increase PoPs beyond
00z to support the northern bounds of possible thunderstorm
development across the I-20 corridor. Beyond this, the forecast
continues to be on track and no further updates are needed at this
time.

RK

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday Night)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Aside from patchy fog across much of the region this morning,
weather impacts are minimal to begin the day. However, we are
monitoring an upstream MCS shifting from the TX panhandle into
NW/NCntrl TX toward the DFW metroplex. More recent runs of the
hi-res NAM and HRRR are increasingly bullish on this convection
maintaining strength and organization as it rides a shortwave
eastward throughout the day today. In keeping with these trends,
have carried mid chance PoPs across much of East TX along and
south of I-20 toward Toledo Bend country where it appears this
complex will likely track SE if it indeed does manage to hold
together through this afternoon. Lower end rain chances extend
into much of Northern LA to account for any slight deviations
along with potential outflow boundaries generated downstream of
this convection by mid to late afternoon.

As for temperatures today, increasing cirrus from the upstream
convection may very well temper highs for this afternoon so it`s
possible that the forecast of upper 80s to near 90 degrees may be
just a bit too warm. However, due to afternoon timing of possible
convection impacting southern parts of the region, we will have
several hours of warming to approach seasonal average temps. It
is worth noting that although severe weather is a low-end threat
today, the extent of warming ahead of any possible thunderstorms
later this afternoon may result in some isolated damaging winds,
which is reflected by a Marginal Risk in SPC`s Day 1 convective
outlook for areas generally along and south of the I-20 corridor.
Some of this convection may linger into the evening hours, mainly
from Toledo Bend and points eastward in Northern and Central LA.
Overnight temperatures will cool back into the mid and upper 60s
to lower 70s.

Moving ahead to Sunday, NW flow aloft will persist and maintain at
least some chance for additional scattered convection given the
subtle perturbations embedded in the pattern along with the very
warm and moist LL flow across our region. So expect a warm and
humid day on Sunday with high temperatures near 90 degrees with
better rain chances coming during the hours of afternoon peak
heating before gradually diminishing by Sunday evening/night.

/19/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

As we move ahead to next week, upper-level ridging across Mexico
will slowly expand northward into more of TX and LA. In doing so,
this should begin to limit rain chances to areas mainly along and
north of I-20. Not surprisingly, temperatures will begin to nudge
higher throughout next week with upper 80s to lower 90s area wide.
This may result in some areas approaching heat advisory thresholds
by mid to late week given the higher humidity levels expected with
persistent southerly flow and the very moist soil conditions after
such a wet month of May.

Medium-range progs do continue to suggest the arrival of a late
week cold front on Friday, but some discrepancies still exist as
the upper-level ridge will continue to be a factor in potentially
slowing and/or preventing the front from fully advancing through
the region. At a minimum, the cold front is expected to provide at
least a slight increase in rain chances by late next week heading
into next weekend.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

mostly low VFR ceilings or VFR conditions will prevail through
much of the remainder of the day across our terminal airspace.
Followed the HRRR closely when it comes to the introduction of
VCTS and TEMPO TSRA groups along and south of the I-20 Corridor
late this afternoon into the evening hours with the possibility of
convection coming northward from SE TX. Time/Height Cross Sections
support a return to MVFR or IFR ceilings pre-sunrise across all
but the TXK/ELD terminals as well as MVFR VSBYS with IFR ceilings
becoming MVFR by late morning on Sunday. Winds will mostly be
light and variable today outside of convection, becoming
southeasterly late tonight through the first half of Sunday.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  71  89  75 /  20  20  30  10
MLU  89  69  89  72 /  20  20  30  10
DEQ  87  66  87  70 /  10  10  30  20
TXK  89  70  90  73 /  10  10  30  20
ELD  88  66  89  70 /  10  10  20  10
TYR  88  71  89  74 /  40  20  30  20
GGG  89  70  89  74 /  30  20  30  10
LFK  90  71  88  73 /  40  30  40   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...13