330
FXUS64 KSJT 291911
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
211 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

This afternoon, a weak outflow boundary was moving southwestward
through west central Texas. Temperatures were in the mid to upper
80s with dewpoints in the 60s. Although CAPE values are around
3000 J/kg this afternoon, a stronger ridge is in place today than
yesterday which should be a tougher cap for potential convection
to fight through. As a result, instability this afternoon and
evening looks rather conditional and any showers or storms should
be fairly short lived.

Later this evening, mainly after sunset, a weak wave should approach
the Trans-Pecos area where CAPE values are around 5000 J/kg. Storms
look to develop over the Davis Mountains, where the best convergence
is located, and move northeastward toward Crockett County.  Any
storms that develop have chances for large hail and damaging
winds due to the better mid-level lapse rates in this area.

Thunderstorm chances look to ramp up again tomorrow as southerly
surface flow increases and brings higher dewpoints into west central
Texas. Models show CAPE values in the 3000-5000 J/kg range.  An
upper-level wave moving through the central Plains could result in
some scattered thunderstorms developing early tomorrow morning
across the Big Country, so PoPs were confined to this location.
Higher chances, however, exist late in the afternoon to early
evening just after peak heating for areas further south.  Storms
should fire along the dryline, which models show will be located
from the Panhandle southward through the Permian Basin. Another
upper-level impulse moving into the Panhandle should provide plenty
of support for development as they push eastward into our county
warning area in the evening. Given the location of the wave,
areas most likely to be impacted by storms will be from the Concho
Valley northward.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

For Thursday night, there will be boundaries, stationary front/outflow
boundary just northeast of the area and a dryline over the Permain
Basin and Trans Pecos, for thunderstorms to fire off during the late
afternoon hours. The Hi-Res models indicate isolated probably
supercells firing along the dryline to our west and a few storms
developing just to our north and moving into our area, and merging
into a line of strong/severe storms mainly across the northern
half of the area, moving southeast possibly making it to the I-10
corridor by late evening. The combination of strong/extreme
instability and good vertical wind shear will result in some
severe storms. The main hazards will large to very large hail,
damaging winds and an isolated tornado possible. Also, localized
flooding is possible due to high PW values producing locally heavy
rainfall.

For Friday, an unsettled pattern will continue with weak upper level
support, a cold front along the I-10 corridor and abundant moisture.
Expect scattered thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon and evening
across the eastern half of the area. A few storms may be severe due to
strong instability and some wind shear. The main hazards will be large
hail, damaging winds and localized flooding. For this weekend, isolated
to scattered thunderstorms are possible mainly across the northern and
eastern areas. Can not rule out and isolated strong/severe storm mainly
during the late afternoon and evening. The early part of next week
looks mainly dry and warmer as an upper level high pressure ridge
builds into the area. Highs will be in the 90s to around 102.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

VFR conditions with winds generally 5 to 10 KT expected through
around midnight. Late tonight, MVFR ceilings are expected to
develop and should continue through mid-morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     67  85  67  81 /  20  40  50  50
San Angelo  69  92  70  90 /  20  30  30  40
Junction    72  94  72  94 /  20  20  30  40
Brownwood   69  84  68  82 /  10  20  50  60
Sweetwater  67  87  67  82 /  20  40  40  50
Ozona       70  91  70  91 /  30  20  20  20
Brady       70  87  70  85 /  20  20  50  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...SK