Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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521 FXUS64 KSJT 281010 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 510 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 229 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 ....Another Round of Severe Weather for West Central Texas Today... The seemingly never-ending severe weather this spring across West Central Texas looks to continue this afternoon and evening. Trying to pin down the where and how bad is more difficult this time around because the convection ongoing this morning across the Red River Valley will play a significant role, helping determine where the surface boundaries tend up today. 00Z NAMNEST was very aggressive with the convection this morning, eventually developing a coherent outflow boundary that pushes all the way south into or even through the Concho Valley and Heartland to near I-10 by early afternoon. This would produce a little less unstable air mass for the area and a little less widespread severe weather. Other CAMs are not as aggressive and keep the boundary to the north, leaving most of West Central Texas with a potent severe weather potential. Decent amount of convection is ongoing across the Red River so the NAMNEST scenario is possible, although first thought is that it may be a little too aggressive with the speed of the boundary and how far south it can make it. For now, will aim for something in the middle with convection developing to the west along the dryline and perhaps directly across West Central Texas with the outflow boundary. Given the air mass (CAPE values in excess of 3500 and perhaps much higher) and shear, storms may quickly become severe. Initially, very large hail possible, but an overall trend toward a strengthening MCS looks possible with very strong winds as well. SPC has bumped the risk category up to Enhanced across the area, and see zero reason to disagree. Given the high theta-e air mass that may pool along the outflow boundary as well, there is a risk of very efficient rainfall production as well and thus, flash flooding. After a quick coordination with WPC, have bumped the risk of excessive rainfall up as well. All in all, looks to be a busy afternoon and evening that people will need to keep a very close eye on. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 341 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Unsettled weather pattern will continue through much of the long term. How much thunderstorm development we see on Wednesday is uncertain. Models build in shortwave ridging overhead in the wake of the Tuesday/Tuesday night convection. The dry line is forecast to hang back to the west for most of the day. Thunderstorms may develop ahead of the dry line across the higher terrain of the Davis Mountains and propagate eastward into the northern Edwards Plateau in the late afternoon/evening. Most of the CAMs however keep most of the area dry through the day on Wednesday. Have cut down PoPs a bit but kept them in the chance category for now. Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue on Thursday and Friday. The ridge weakens on Thursday as another shortwave trough dives down into the southern Plains. Models hint at another round of storms developing in the Panhandle Thursday afternoon, with this activity potentially developing into an MCS and and moving southeastward into the Big Country Thursday evening/night. SPC has introduced a slight risk for severe weather on Thursday mainly north of I-20 to account for this scenario. Large hail and damaging winds would be the primary hazards especially if an MCS does develop. Could see a lull in activity on Friday before yet another shortwave trough initiates another round of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon/night. Upper level ridge over northern Mexico builds back in Sunday and Monday resulting in only a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Temperatures will be much cooler for the rest of the week- mainly in the 80s and 90s- before warming back up near the triple digits by the beginning of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Main issue for the aviation side will continue to be the chances for convection across the area that will impact terminals. Latest CAMs continue to have their differences, but will lean towards a more typical late afternoon and evening time frame for most of the storms, which is in line with the latest HRRR. Have included PROB30s for now and will update later once the timing becomes more certain. Otherwise, will continue to watch observational trends for more MVFR cigs to develop and move north across the terminals this morning, although abundant high clouds from a large convective complex to the south is both disrupting some of the MVFR cloud formation as well as hiding it where it is developing. Whatever forms should be relatively short lived and lifting/breaking up by mid to late morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 91 65 82 67 / 50 60 40 30 San Angelo 97 67 89 68 / 40 50 30 20 Junction 97 69 93 71 / 30 50 30 20 Brownwood 89 66 81 67 / 30 70 40 30 Sweetwater 94 65 82 67 / 60 60 30 30 Ozona 94 67 90 71 / 40 40 30 20 Brady 90 67 84 68 / 30 60 40 30 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...07