Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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426 FXUS64 KSJT 281849 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 149 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 133 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 The atmosphere will be unstable Thursday and isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible in the late afternoon and overnight. The best potential will be late evening in the Big Country as a possible MCS moves southeast from the Texas Panhandle. Large hail and damaging winds possible along with localized flooding. The moist unstable atmosphere will stay over the region into next week. While storm coverage may be more isolated Friday, another storm complex may develop along the dryline out west Saturday afternoon and move east east through the region Saturday evening/night. Sunday into Tuesday, storms looks again to be more isolated, but certainly a few storms may develop along a dryline in the Permian Basin then move east. Temperature-wise, highs will be mainly in the 80s Big Country into Sunday with lower to mid 90s to the south. Highs in the 90s are expected across the region Monday into Tuesday with reading around 100 in the Concho Valley. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 341 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Unsettled weather pattern will continue through much of the long term. How much thunderstorm development we see on Wednesday is uncertain. Models build in shortwave ridging overhead in the wake of the Tuesday/Tuesday night convection. The dry line is forecast to hang back to the west for most of the day. Thunderstorms may develop ahead of the dry line across the higher terrain of the Davis Mountains and propagate eastward into the northern Edwards Plateau in the late afternoon/evening. Most of the CAMs however keep most of the area dry through the day on Wednesday. Have cut down PoPs a bit but kept them in the chance category for now. Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue on Thursday and Friday. The ridge weakens on Thursday as another shortwave trough dives down into the southern Plains. Models hint at another round of storms developing in the Panhandle Thursday afternoon, with this activity potentially developing into an MCS and and moving southeastward into the Big Country Thursday evening/night. SPC has introduced a slight risk for severe weather on Thursday mainly north of I-20 to account for this scenario. Large hail and damaging winds would be the primary hazards especially if an MCS does develop. Could see a lull in activity on Friday before yet another shortwave trough initiates another round of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon/night. Upper level ridge over northern Mexico builds back in Sunday and Monday resulting in only a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Temperatures will be much cooler for the rest of the week- mainly in the 80s and 90s- before warming back up near the triple digits by the beginning of next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Outflow boundary near KSOA, heading southwest, has left strong east winds gusting between 30 and 40 KTS across terminals. These will gradually weaken this afternoon, but should remain gusty until early evening. Thunderstorms developing out west, may affect KSJT and KSOA mainly after 00Z, and KBBD and KJCT later after 02Z. Storms may also affect KABI late evening. MVFR stratus otherwise returns late tonight and early Tuesday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 65 83 69 87 / 60 40 30 40 San Angelo 66 88 71 92 / 60 40 20 30 Junction 68 91 72 93 / 70 30 20 10 Brownwood 65 83 69 84 / 70 40 40 30 Sweetwater 65 83 69 88 / 50 40 20 40 Ozona 67 90 71 92 / 50 30 10 10 Brady 66 83 69 86 / 70 40 30 30 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for Brown- Callahan-Coke-Coleman-Concho-Irion-Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard- Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Tom Green. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...04