Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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567 FXUS64 KSJT 260540 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1240 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 122 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 ...A significant severe weather event is possible across the central and southern Plains states this afternoon and evening... The latest severe weather/mesoanalysis analysis shows a dryline from Slaton to Midland to just west of Sanderson, moving slowly east. Also, meso sector 2 satellite imagery already indicates a few CI fails over Sterling and Coke counties. To the east of the dryline, there is extreme instability across much of our area, SBCAPES of 5000 to 6000 J/kg and rich low level moisture, dewpoints in the 70s, even upper 70s over the eastern Big Country. Also, effective shear values are 50 to 60 knots and the shear vector is perpendicular to the dryline, so that means separated storms and probably supercells to start with this afternoon. Looks like coverage of storms will remain isolated and most areas will remain dry. An isolated storm or two will probably develop by 3 PM due to low level convergence along the dryline or a local breach in the cap. The potential for this will along and east of a Sweetwater to San Angelo line, with maybe better coverage in the SPC Enhanced Risk Area. Any storms that develop will rapidly become severe due to the extreme instability and strong vertical wind shear with the main hazards being giant size hail(baseball size), damaging winds and tornadoes due to low level shear improving during the late afternoon and early evening. Keep up with the latest weather information and have multiple ways of getting warnings and watches! Most Hi-Res models indicate storms moving east of the area by 10 PM. However, a few models have isolated storm or two until 1 AM. Going with low chance Pops and severe wording across the Concho Valley, Big Country and Heartland early this evening. Going with a dry forecast after 10 PM through the rest of the short term. Expect hot and dry weather Sunday with highs in the upper 90s to around 103. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Saturday) Issued at 116 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 ....Unsettled Pattern to Return Next Week... Hot weather will continue for Memorial Day as an upper- level ridge persists over northern Mexico. Numerical guidance suggests yet another day of triple-digit heat with low overall rain chances. Starting Tuesday, the pattern looks to become unsettled again as an upper-level trough becomes established over the eastern US and puts the southern Plains into northwest flow. Models show multiple shortwave impulses aloft riding over the north edge of the weakening ridge through Friday. Warm temperatures in the low to mid 90s will be expected each afternoon with plenty of Gulf moisture in place due to southeast surface flow. A cold front should also dip into west central Texas late Monday night into Tuesday and stall through Wednesday. Thunderstorms should develop along both the front and the dryline late Tuesday with lingering convection possible Wednesday. The front should lift back northward on Thursday and provide even more chances for showers and thunderstorms through Friday. Conditions through the entire week are likely to be warm and muggy. However, local conditions may be impacted at times by cloud cover and cold pools left from earlier convection. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Isolated showers and thunderstorms may begin to develop along the dry line to our west and move eastward into our area over the next few hours. Confidence in overall coverage of storms is low and kept a mention of VCTS out of the TAFS. Will continue to monitor radar and satellite trends and amend as necessary. Otherwise, periods of patchy mist and haze is possible overnight and into the hours. Winds will become westerly during the day with VFR conditions prevailing. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 97 65 97 70 / 0 0 0 10 San Angelo 101 63 103 71 / 0 0 0 10 Junction 104 66 106 72 / 0 0 10 10 Brownwood 97 64 96 69 / 0 0 0 10 Sweetwater 97 66 98 71 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 99 66 102 72 / 0 0 0 10 Brady 96 65 98 70 / 0 0 10 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....SK AVIATION...42